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Well | Current value | Daily change |
EUR / USD | 1.1355 | 0.46% |
GBP / USD | 1.2629 | 0.36% |
USD / JPY | 112.72 | -0.57% |
AUD / USD | .7177 | 0.03% |
GOLD | 1,250 | 0.64% |
WTI Crude Oil | 49.99 | -2.38% |
BTC / USD | 3,543 | 10.91% |
The US dollar was again at the center of attention, as the last full trading week of the year began downwards for risk assets. Although we have seen a rebound after Theresa May's statement on the Brexit trial regarding a possible vote on the draft plan in January, risk currencies and other risk assets are clearly under pressure, with US equity markets again challenging their corrective minima, completing the global bearish change.
The slight decline in the dollar, which was triggered by another Donald Trump attack on the Fed's tightening program, provided most of the shares in the otherwise quiet forex segment, with many traders taking a step back before the decision on Wednesday's Fed rates. The consensus estimate is still a rise in rates in the central bank meeting, which would be the fourth tightening this year, but now the bond market does not report rate hikes next year and in the current cycle .
Technical analysis
EUR / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / USD rebounded higher in its broader trading range after last week's bearish closing, but remains well below the key 1.1440 level, and the long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged, while pair held above the support zone between 1.1275-1.13.
The breakdown from the consolidation model has been interrupted and we will probably have to wait until Wednesday for the next significant move, but with the period of positive seasonality that will end soon for the euro, the odds continue to favor new lows in January, except for a strong accommodating move from the Federal Reserve.
USD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
The Dollar also lost ground against the Japanese Yen, and the safe-haven currency was among the strongest, especially in the second half of the day, as risk assets declined significantly. USD / JPY continues to swap a broad consolidation pattern, but today's decline of 113.50 could be the beginning of a broader trend change, with all eyes on the October low near to 111,50. The strength of gold confirms the strong flows of safe haven, which could push the Yen higher than all the major, even the Dollar.
AUD / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
AUD / USD continues to be in an interesting technical configuration with a probable shift towards the October lows probably under way. Today, the Australian dollar has shown relative weakness due to risk-off flows, and is virtually unchanged against the greenback, despite the large decline in reserve currency.
Wednesday's Fed decision and Thursday's Australian employment report are likely to cause volatile movements in the pair before the holidays, but bears still have clear control over the market both in the short and long term, especially given the weakness of Chinese activities.
Gold futures, 4-hour chart analysis
We followed the key breakthrough attempt in gold, and today the precious metal has probably proved to be a crucial minimum swing that could push it to a new high swing, which would signal a probable rally to the resistance zone near the $ 1300 level. a failed attempt to fail is still in the cards, given the fundamental bullish and recent relative strength of gold, the odds favor a confirmed trend change and the start of a bullish cycle here.
Key economic events tomorrow
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Forex
GBP / USD, 4 hour chart analysis
EUR / GBP, 4-hour chart analysis
EUR / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
AUD / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
GBP / JPY, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CHF, 4 hour chart analysis
USD / CNH, 4 hour chart analysis
Commodities
WTI Crude Oil, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Copper futures, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Major stock indices
Futures S & P 500, analysis of the 4-hour chart
DAX 30 Index CFD, analysis of the 4-hour chart
Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-hour chart analysis
Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4 hour chart analysis
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