COVID: Scientist SAGE’s predictions for Christmas and “return to normal” | Political news

All eyes are on Boris Johnson and what coronavirus restrictions will be enforced across England when the national lockdown ends and how loose they will be over Christmas.

While some parts of the prime minister’s plan they were announced overnight, he’s spending Sunday working out the details.

But Professor Calum Semple, who is part of the government’s Emergency Science Advisory Group (SAGE), spoke to Sky News to explain what the science says.

He told Sophy Ridge On Sunday about the kind of advice offered to ministers on easing the rules at Christmas, when a vaccine could come and “go back to normal”, as well as how regional levels could be strengthened.

Filled with optimism, these are his views on how the next eight months could unfold.

Will the rules be loosened during Christmas and is that a good idea?

In fact, we can’t ban Christmas. Doing so would only lead to violations – and what are you going to do about it?

So instead, what we’re looking at is reducing the R number, but also lowering the absolute number of cases.

There is really good news here: nationwide, we are seeing cases drop in the community and in those areas that entered level 3 before the lockdown, we are already seeing the turn of the tide with the number of hospital admissions and soon we will see the the number of deaths is also reduced.

So there is every reason to believe that when the blockade is lifted, many areas will be able to enter the lower levels and some areas will remain in the higher levels.

Then you have the run up to Christmas and hopefully if the system works, we will be able to loosen some regulations for a few days. But there will be a price for it.

Does this mean we will have to pay with five times longer than the stricter restrictions?

Yes. All in all it is fair, but it should not be seen that they will be draconian restrictions, it will only prolong the top level restrictions and restrictions for some areas and perhaps for all areas as a whole.

It is very difficult to know because we are talking about human behavior here.

We know that restrictions work, we also know we have to open up the economy, so there is a very difficult balance here.

When will the vaccines be launched?

Vaccine priorities will inevitably be the most vulnerable and frontline health workers – they won’t be academics like me.

I think we will see it phased out around Christmas and New Year because the vaccine has already been ordered and we have had great results.

For the rest of the population, I think we will look towards the summer before there is mass vaccination of the rest of the population.

And that’s what will give us immunity, the broad immunity that will allow us to return to normal.

So does this mean social distancing until next summer?

I doubt it because if we can vaccinate the frail and the elderly, it will ease the pressure on groups who will be hospitalized with a serious illness.

We still have a core of women between the ages of 20-50, particularly between the ages of 20 and 40, where we are seeing three to four times the admission of these women than men.

It has not actually been explained well, but it seems to match their roles in the hospitality, healthcare and entertainment sectors.

And many of them will have COVID for a long time, so there will be a strong push to get vaccination across the community and not just for the elderly.

Where are the transmission settings of the highest risk?

There are some real surprises here: the construction industry.

You would have thought that working outside would not be a risk, but many people in construction are actually working inside before buildings are essentially made COVID-sure.

But other areas are exactly as you’d expect: high risk around food production where it’s indoors, poorly ventilated, kept cold enough so you don’t have high airflows, and workers work closely together.

The others are pretty obvious, but you can’t do much to fix them: health and social care are a key part of society, we know it’s associated with exposure and risk but we can’t shut it down.

Did the pub protection measures make a lot of difference?

According to the data, we can still identify these as high-risk assets.

On an individual basis, there will be people who have strongly adhered to the use of these protection mechanisms and who will have protected them.

But as in all things, the underlying asset is risky. It doesn’t take long, you touch the mask when you shouldn’t, grab the scissors and fix your hair and suddenly you’ve broken the barriers. It’s not just a case of “oh beat a mask and a visor”, it’s about not touching the mask, it’s about washing your hands.

It’s difficult; nurses and doctors take years to learn how to do this correctly, and it is very, very difficult if you are a member of the public to get into the swing of proper use of PPE.

Should a 10pm curfew remain?

History has a lot to teach us, and in the years of Prohibition, they tried to change the drinking time, they tried to say you could only drink if you ate and everyone is very inventive – people find ways to get around it.

So I think fiddling on the edge of something like pub closing times is not an effective mechanism.

With pubs and clubs you have to look at human behavior as a whole and take that into account, and I think that’s what was missing when it first arrived.

I think whatever iteration comes next will be better informed by understanding human behavior and not guiding us into an unintended consequence that can increase broadcast such as pub closures early and everyone being taken to the streets at the same time.