Covid: hospitals remain under pressure despite the decline in the epidemic

“We have started the decline of the epidemic”. This Tuesday, Health Minister Olivier Véran, on BFMTV and RMC, welcomed the fact that “Government measures” – I leave in November, but also a curfew in October – “Work”. But the reopening of shops or places of worship is not yet topical, because “We are still in a phase of significant active circulation”, He insisted.

In fact, the virus has been far less virulent for two weeks. The positive rate for Covid tests dropped to 16.5% on Monday, from 21% a few days ago. The incidence that had approached 500 cases per week per 100,000 population at the end of October is now 284 per 100,000. As for hospital and ICU admissions, they are decreasing day by day. As a result, the number of Covid ICU patients stabilizes at around 4,900. However, the peak in hospitalizations has not yet been surpassed, with more than 33,000 concurrent Covid cases on Monday.

In this context, the resuscitation curve for Covid is very unlikely to rise to 7,000 beds occupied simultaneously – as expected in the event of containment failure – or even to 6,000 beds – successful containment scenario. Olivier Véran, on the other hand, on Tuesday defended himself from all alarmism. Including non-Covid patients, “To date we have approximately 8,300, 8,400 patients in intensive care, which is more than 140% of our initial capacities”, He explained.

A tray that arranges

“We are far from a totally green situation, it is a plateau that is being set up”, the president of the French hospital federation Frédéric Valletoux warned for his part. “In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, in Hauts-de-France, in Ile-de-France, the levels of assistance are still high”, detailed this Tuesday. In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, in fact, more than 7,000 people were hospitalized on Monday, compared to 3,000 at the peak in April, with 860 in intensive care on Sunday. In Hauts-de-France hospitalizations for Covid have risen to 3,200, compared to 2,600 in the first wave. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the first collision was at 1,900 and the rebound at 3,300. Not to mention Occitania, which went from 1,000 to 2,200.

Conversely, Île-de-France is in a much better position than in spring and can afford to welcome patients from other regions after sending theirs elsewhere. From one wave to the next, half the patients hospitalized in the region (6,600 instead of 13,200 in April). The same goes for resuscitation cases. Most importantly, the number of Ile-de-France residents in intensive care appears to have reached a plateau, or even started a decline from the November 12 peak (at 1,133 patients). The internal projections of the Hospitals of Public Assistance in Paris now count on a reflux (from 940 to 1,075 cases in intensive care this Saturday).

Even if the incidence decreases in the city, the decline in the hospital will be slow, warns FHF director general Zaynab Riet. Because if Covid beds are available, overflowing hospitals will be able to hold new arrivals instead of organizing medical evacuations. And reschedule operations canceled in recent weeks. Hospital staff don’t get much rest at Christmas.