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COVID EVALUATION. The latest coronavirus report updated with data from Thursday, December 3, reports nearly 12,700 additional cases in 24 hours and 324 deaths in one day. Hospitalizations and the number of ICU patients continue to decline …
Here is the latest official data available on Covid-19 in France according to the daily reports of Public Health France and the Ministry of Health, based on data from SI-DEP tests, hospital data and feedback from socio-medical institutions, including nursing homes. A lot of details are needed to fully understand these figures. They are described in detail below the table:
Here is the number of Covid-19 cases, deaths, hospitalizations, resuscitations and healings more or less observed compared to the previous report (generally the day before). Latest data available in France according to the daily reports of Public Health France and the Ministry of Health:
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New cases of covid, test positivity rate, proportion of the population tested … Internet users suggest that you consult the data on the evolution of the epidemic in your city for free. See
From these daily coronavirus data in France, we have developed several curves that allow us to observe the evolution of the virus based on the number of confirmed cases, the number of hospitalizations and ICU patients, the number of hospital deaths and deaths. totals and number of returns home, similar to treatment.
For each graph, the curve represents the cumulative amount (ex: total cases, hospitalizations in progress) while the bars correspond to daily variations (daily hospitalization balances, new deaths, etc.).
Clarification on the number of cases: the French government and public health changed their method of collecting data on test results in mid-May with the SI-DEP project. The data recorded before and after 13 May 2020 are therefore not fully comparable. Both the quantity and the nature of the tests carried out have changed significantly. From a few thousand tests, France went to more than 1 million tests every week, then to 2 million in early November, inevitably affecting the numbers. In addition, at the height of the March / April crisis, the examinations mainly concerned seriously ill people, usually hospitalized, setting aside all patients with no or few symptoms. The actual number of Covid-19 cases in France was therefore significantly higher than the estimated number of confirmed cases during this period. Since mid-November, the number of positive tests includes, in addition to the PCR tests, the results of the antigen tests.
Clarification on admissions: Here it is necessary to clearly distinguish the evolution of the total number of patients hospitalized in an instant T and new hospitalizations, or new hospitalizations every day (gross). In one case, it is a balance, which takes into account admissions, but also discharge from the hospital (recovery or death). In the other, there is only talk of new hospitalizations or intensive care units for Covid within a day. On weekends, hospital data is often taken from Public Health France’s Géodes website and is not consolidated data.
Clarification on the number of deaths: since the decline, public health France no longer updates results in nursing homes on a daily basis. This report was reported every week in late summer, then several times a week to permanently stabilize in the fall: now the nursing home data (cases and deaths) goes up every Tuesday and Friday. We therefore initially preferred to cancel the number of daily deaths in nursing homes in order not to distort the graphs. At the request of several readers, from 13 November, the updates of deaths in nursing homes (dark gray bars) that cause artificial peaks on Tuesdays and Fridays are displayed again.
Data errors and corrections have also been reported on a number of occasions by Public Health France since mid-March, sometimes leading to overestimates generally followed by negative trends in the number of deaths.
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The Ministry of Health also calculates, from the raw data, a series of statistics on the trend of Covid-19 in the country. Four particularly important indicators are presented below: the RT-PCR positive rate, the incidence rate, the number of actual reproductions, and the intensive care bed occupancy rate. If the first and the last are easily understood (percentage of positive tests out of the total number of tests carried out and percentage of beds occupied in intensive care), the other two deserve a definition.
The incidence rate, represented by the second curve, is considered a key indicator of the virulence of the virus. This is the number of new coronavirus cases diagnosed by the PCR test that have occurred in the past 7 days. This figure is related to the number of inhabitants, i.e. a rate expressed per 100,000 inhabitants. The reproduction number (R) corresponds to the average number of people infected by a patient. If this figure is greater than 1, it means that a person with Covid-19 is infecting on average more than another person currently and therefore that the disease is progressing.
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Many other graphs and maps have been produced by recognized scientists and journals to attempt to observe as closely as possible the trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic around the world and to compare the evolution of Covid-19 in the different affected countries. Of these curves, those compiled from data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States are among the most complete. This data is reproduced in particular by the Financial Times, Google Studio and many others with daily updates. Since mid-April we have been drawing on data and graphs presented by the Our World in Data website, a joint project by researchers from the University of Oxford and the NGO Global Change Data Lab. These curves and this map show the number of cases and deaths compared to the population, that is, per 1 million inhabitants.
Curve of the number of coronavirus cases per million:
Map of the number of coronavirus deaths per million:
Focusing on the total number of “gross” deaths in each country is questionable indeed, at a time when governments’ handling of the pandemic and its results provoke numerous lively comparisons and debates. The reduction in the number of deaths among the population should cancel the demographic weight of each country, but on the other hand it does not cancel the age pyramid which sometimes presents very significant differences from one country to another.
The other advantage of the curves and maps of the Our World in Data project is that they take into account the delay in the emergence of the epidemic from one country to another. According to the graphs, the count starts from the first case or from the 100th case detected in the territory, or, for deaths, from the day from which 5 deaths were recorded in the country (day 0 on the x axis).
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