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Despite a wave of optimism driven by the presentation of preliminary results related to clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines, virologists remind us that there is still a lot of work to be done before a possible vaccination campaign.
“We would be inclined to believe that at this stage of the pandemic we would be more suspicious and skeptical of scientific press release announcements,” joked Ross Upshur of the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
“The published data are provisional,” adds Alyson Kelvin of Dalhousie University. Trials are still ongoing. ”
Two manufacturers, Pfizer and Moderna, recently announced that their vaccines are 95% effective. The statements lifted stock markets and prompted politicians to demand rapid, large-scale distribution, sparking a wave of optimism among the population affected by the health measures.
But wait, experts say.
A 95% effective vaccine does not mean that it protects 95% of the people who receive it. Rather, it means that people who have received it were 95% less likely to contract the virus.
“It’s a relative comparison,” Ross Upshur notes.
Additionally, there is a lot of data left that needs to be independently reviewed and none of that has been made available yet. Researchers must ensure that nothing in the scientific process interfered with the results.
It is important to have access to real data to see if, for example, the subjects who received the placebo were at increased risk of contracting the disease.
Alyson Kelvin, a virologist at Dalhousie University
Explain that the phase 3 clinical trials involving large cohorts of up to 40,000 people and usually lasts up to three years. The extended shelf life helps ensure that no long-term negative effects are seen.
Ross Upshur points out that a 95% efficiency rate is exceptionally high. He adds that these data are particularly surprising given that these are new technologies, new vaccines, that we have never seen such a high efficacy rate and that medicine does not have a great success story with respiratory viruses.
Both manufacturers Pfizer and Moderna have filed for emergency approval in the United States to expedite the use of their respective vaccines.
This would allow them to inject a true dose of the vaccine to all participants in the next phase of the trial, without a control group, while preventing them from measuring its true effectiveness.
A mistake, says Ross Upshur. A side effect that affects only one in 15,000 people is greatly amplified when billions of people are vaccinated.
The University of Toronto expert stresses the importance of letting the scientific process take its course. He says public health agencies definitely don’t need another reason to feed doubts about vaccine safety.
Ross Upshur and his fellow virologists are aware of the pressure on manufacturers to produce a vaccine against COVID-19. However, he insists that work shouldn’t be rushed to ensure the solution isn’t worse than the disease.
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