[ad_1]
All indicators of the Covid-19 pandemic are falling. In the period from 9 to 15 November, new confirmed cases of contamination decreased by 40%, hospitalizations by 13% and admissions to intensive care by 9% compared to the previous week. The deaths seem to have stabilized “for the first time in several weeks of increase” with, in the same period, 3,756 victims of the disease. The French public health agency, which published these trends on Thursday evening in its weekly epidemiological update, sees the combined effect of the curfew introduced in various agglomerations in France from October 17, then of the general reconfirmation from the 30.
However, this good news should be taken with a grain of salt. Because if “the peak of the second wave has probably been exceeded”, as the Health Authority points out, “the indicators remain at high levels”. Therefore, there are currently around 32,000 patients hospitalized following a coronavirus infection. This is 10,000 more than the number of beds occupied at the time of the declaration of re-containment.
The curves should logically continue to decline over the next few days, as has been the case since Tuesday. “In the short term, the slow decrease in pressure on hospital services will continue,” estimates Mircea Sofonea, epidemiologist and infectious disease modeling specialist at the University of Montpellier. On the other hand, the whole question of the next few days will be that of controlling the circulation of the virus after December 1st. “
Difficult to go below 5,000 cases per day
The epidemiologist is particularly concerned about the very slow downward trend in the level of the reproduction rate, referred to as the “effective R” and corresponding to the number of people who, on average, are themselves infected with a single carrier of the virus. “Even with a rate of less than 1 bar, around 0.8 and 0.9 as currently, there will be more than 5,000 new cases a day, generalized imprisonment or not, warns Mircea Sofonea. We can expect a drop in mid-December for hospital admissions, but a slow increase if we play with fire with less restrictive health rules in the weeks to come. “
Like many of his colleagues, the epidemiologist is campaigning for more preventive work by health authorities to avoid a third wave. “They ignored the strong signals that appeared in July and August, Mircea Sofonea regrets. National reconfiguration was an admission of failure while multiple local or regional isolation strategies could have avoided the situation we find ourselves in today. “
Epidemiologist and biostatist Catherine Hill calls for a massive screening of the entire population, “the only strategy to control the epidemic, containment only by slowing it down”.
Source link
