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This new tool, called PredictEst, is based on the data provided daily by Public Health France and on the “Epidemiological modeling”. It must make it possible to provide an image of the epidemic from maps and graphs “At 30 days” in order to “To avoid, as far as possible, new generalized borders”.
“The goal was not to create its own regional instrument”, compared to the national forecasts already proposed by the Pasteur Institute in Paris, explained Jean Rottner, president (LR) of the Regional Council. “But to offer regions the possibility of a much wider use of health data”.
In particular, the tool should make it possible to monitor and anticipate a certain number of indicators, such as the disease incidence rate, at district level, for blocks of 2,000 inhabitants.
Prioritize the locations where screening campaigns will take place
“This will allow the regional health authority to give priority to places” where the next screening campaigns will take place, announced the prefect of the Grand-East region, Josiane Chevalier.
The tool offers templates “On hospitalization levels at 15 days very accurately, with less than 5% error, and at six or eight weeks on robust trends”, underlined Benoît Gallix, Director General of the IHU.
“We can predict in early January if there will be a third wave” after the end of year holidays, he anticipated. “Everything will depend on the behavior of our fellow citizens at Christmas, but these behaviors, the tool cannot predict. “
“The hosting of health data is carried out in France”
Even before its official presentation, PredictEst had already assisted in decision making in a hospital setting. “I used it to communicate to the CHRU information that the (second) wave would not be as violent (locally) as the national data predicted.”, added Benoît Gallix. “We have thus delayed the closure of beds in some wards by eight days in view of the opening of resuscitation beds”.
From a technological point of view, in particular in the development of algorithms and data storage, the device benefits from the support of the University of Reims Champagne-Ardenne, the General Directorate of Armaments, Capgemini and Dassault Systèmes.
“Health data is hosted in France, with practically the highest level of protection in the world”, said Benoît Gallix.
He specified that the infrastructure could be used to offer other models in the future, “Going beyond the coronavirus application alone”.
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