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France resumed the deconfinement process this week and the expected arrival of vaccines in 2021 gives renewed optimism. But the risk of a third wave of Covid-19 is still real and the government has its work cut out on the issue of testing and isolating positive cases.
Thanks to the cumulative effects of the curfew, childbirth and All Saints’ Day holidays, a “significant decrease in the circulation of SARS-CoV-2” was finally observed by Public Health France. For the health authority, the peak of contamination was exceeded the week of October 26, then that of hospitalizations in the following week.
As a result, the French Hospital Federation (FHF) was able, for example, to announce that public hospitals were initiating a “very, very careful reprogramming” surgical activity outside Covid-19, even if the burden remains high, with about 29,000 hospitalized patients, of which 4,000 in intensive care. And the limit of 50,000 dead has been exceeded.
“Psychologically, we will not be able to resist a third wave and a third confinement, with people who are tired, who can’t take it anymore”, warns the professor of public health at the university hospital of Lille, Philippe Amouyel.
But yet, “the risk exists“, he immediately adds to the AFP, identifying”two critical events: Black Friday “ Friday, December 4, which makes you fear a rush to the shops, then the period “from 24 December to 1 January”, with Christmas and New Year celebrations. “Because you will not be able to prevent people from seeing each other, especially since they are coming out of prison and have suffered as a result.”
“If the restrictions are lifted on January 20”, as announced by Emmanuel Macron, “and that the level of circulation of the virus, at that moment, is close to that of October, it is likely that the third wave will arrive quite quickly”, also analyzes Mircea Sofonea, professor of epidemiology at the University of Montpellier.
From this weekend, businesses such as bookstores, toy shops or hairdressers will be able to reopen. “This is a first unknown. In all likelihood, this will have the effect of slowing the decline.” the number of new cases, estimates Mircea Sofonea.
According to the plan rejected on Tuesday by Emmanuel Macron, on December 15 it will be possible to lift the prison sentence if the situation continues to improve. Museums, theaters and cinemas will once again be able to welcome the public and travel between regions will be authorized. But the government is counting on maintaining a curfew and closing bars and restaurants, which puts this profession to the test, to keep the epidemic under control.
In any case, the situation remains “fragile” is “do not confuse the peak and the end of an epidemic”, underlines Laëtitia Huiart, scientific director of Public Health France, where we insist on the need to maintain barrier gestures and social distancing.
Beyond these protective measures, there is an urgent need to improve other levers, particularly to better detect and isolate positive cases, say health experts interviewed by AFP.
As evidence of this difficulty, just over 23% of new Covid-19 cases are now cases already identified as contact from a previous positive case, according to weekly data from Public Health France.
Philippe Amouyel regrets that the government does not launch a screening of the entire population before the Christmas holidays, although the Ministry of Health does not rule out a targeted operation at the local level. “We know that the virus will necessarily circulate faster at Christmas, this would allow it to start over from below”, he judges.
Another tool, the Tousanticovid application, has been downloaded by 9.8 million users so far, a better record than its ancestor, StopCovid. But to date, the app has only sent 14,000 notifications to potential contact cases – a relatively low number.
Finally, the government has promised to make the isolation of positive cases more effective, but it has yet to present a bill on the matter and find the right balance between coercion and patient support.
“If we want to avoid a third wave, everything else must work: we help the sick to remain isolated, we accelerate the tests, we keep all the barrier gestures, we make people responsible”, lists Philippe Amouyel, for whom “it is more than ever the time to implement at the same time dear to the president” Emmanuel Macron.
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