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Catalonia decided on Thursday to take a two-week break before attacking the second decontamination phase. Is such a scenario possible for France which has to go to phase 2 on 15 December? Start of response with data from Public Health France.
Catalonia announced, this Thursday at noon, the pause of its decline plan. Initially scheduled for 7 December, phase 2 of decontamination will not be active until 21 December.
In question, the circulation of the virus which is progressing again in Catalonia with a reproduction rate of 0.92, slightly above the threshold of 0.90 set by the Catalan authorities.
Like Catalonia, France has also opted for gradual decline in three phases until January 20. The next deadline is set for December 15, when France could move to phase 2 and see some tightening measures significantly reduced.
But precisely for this reason, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, had set himself goals: 5,000 new daily contaminations and 2,500 – 3,000 people in intensive care at most.
What about this lens today? And above all, France will be able to reach it by next Thursday, when most likely it will be decided whether or not to maintain December 15 as phase 2 of deconfinement in the country.
New contaminations too high?
As for the positive cases for the coronavirus, clearly, France is not yet struggling. But the formidable projection tool developed on the CovidTracker website suggests that the goal could be achieved. However, with over 14,000 new cases registered this Wednesday evening, France is far from the 7,600 cases predicted by Covid-Tracker for this December 2.
On average over the past week, France is on 10,000 new cases daily while Covid-Tracker had averaged 8,000 new contaminations daily over the course of the week. The next few days will be decisive. France has to stabilize on average around 6,500 new cases per day during the week and this from 7 December will be significantly below the 5,000 cases expected for 15 December.
As for the second criterion, the number of patients admitted to intensive care is continuously decreasing and France appears to be on track according to Covid-Tracker. The country will drop below 3,000 ICU patients on December 8.
A Catalan scenario for France cannot therefore be ruled out. It is the data of the new contaminations that will be decisive and to be monitored in the coming days.
The new measures of the second phase
As a reminder, if France passes the second decontamination speed on December 15, the French will be able to move without authorization, even beyond the limits of their region. They can also spend Christmas with their family.
However, a curfew will be in effect from 21:00 to 7:00. In the evenings of 24 and 31 December, the French will still be able to move freely to reach their families even if gathering on public roads will be prohibited.
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