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“We must do everything to avoid a third wave, do everything to avoid a third imprisonment,” said the President of the Republic during his speech on November 24.
This scenario is far from impossible, given the greater circulation of the epidemic in the world and in Europe in particular. A third outbreak of contamination is already underway in the United States, South Korea, Japan …
The authorities have given a new appointment: January 20, 2021. After the end of the year celebrations, the perspective on the state of the epidemic will therefore be sufficient to judge the follow-up to be given to the current restrictions. “If the number of contaminations remains below 5,000 cases per day, sports halls and restaurants could reopen and the curfew could be postponed,” the president said.
Where will we be on January 20? Will the contaminations remain below the 5,000 cases detected per day? Nobody knows. The attitude of the population between now and then will be decisive, especially at Christmas and New Year.
Eyes on a letter: the R.
The letter “R”, in capital letters, has entered our daily lexicon beyond the speeches of experts who have punctuated the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic. Behind their jargon lies a simple idea: the level of reproduction of the virus in the population. “You have a car on a slope, the more you brake, the more you reduce the speed,” explains Pascal Crépey, professor and researcher of epidemiology and biostatistics at the Ecole de Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique (EHESP).
If this acceleration principle is contained in a single letter, its calculation method is still debated. Look at the contaminations from week to week? If the population sample is large, it can be influenced by the intensity of the screening policy, but also by the mass of asymptomatic people. The analysis of hospital admissions, even if in a smaller volume, seems to be a “valid” tool according to Pascal Crépey.
The biostatistics specialist does not venture into projections. However, it helped us to outline three logical scenarios based on the future reproduction of the virus. What to evaluate its consequences on the spread of the epidemic.
The optimistic scenario: no resumption of the epidemic during the holiday season
“As long as the R remains below 1, the epidemic decreases. Everything must be done to prevent the epidemic from accelerating again ”, explains the researcher. “At the peak of the second wave, on October 23, the R reached 1.47,” he recalls.
When asked about the attitude of the population between now and January 20, Pascal Crépey naturally stops at the end of the year celebrations. “If the contaminations are punctual on December 25 and January 1, which we meet only with 5 or 6 adults and we part immediately after dinner, it will be fine” he reassures. “If Covid-19 instantly changed people of color, we would see from the second day of imprisonment that the R drops. The problem remains the large group of adults who gather for five to ten days in the same place without respecting the barrier gestures” , explains the epidemiologist.
In short, if the population remains cautious until the holidays, moves for the Christmas holidays, finds themselves in limited numbers and separates quickly, a resumption of the epidemic seems unlikely. .
The reasonable scenario: the controllable epidemic
The idea of total compliance with the rules, for the entire population throughout the territory, seems very optimistic. “We will not completely prevent the circulation of the virus, admits Pascal Crépey. The important thing is that it does not circulate enough for the R to become greater than 1 again, for the epidemic to start again.”
So if the relative easing of the restraining measures is respected, and if the R increases only slightly, while remaining negative, until the end of the year holidays, the first round will be won. The holidays remain.
“Even if the R comes back positive, just at these meals, and the groups split quickly, the R of the week shouldn’t blow up. It should be remembered that during the holidays a large part of the population no longer goes to work, the younger ones no longer go to school… these effects have a positive influence ”, moderates Pascal Crépey.
A moderate increase in R between now and Christmas, more important during the holidays, then moderate in January, should still allow us to remain below the 5,000 contaminations per day threshold, again according to our estimates.
The scenario of the disaster: the new outbreak of the epidemic
The story doesn’t end well. Emmanuel Macron speaks on January 20. It announces the continuation of the restrictive measures and announces new ones. The scenario is not unlikely.
The French take advantage of relaxation to go to many shops, organize large meals, the children still go to school. During the holidays they spend several days with more than ten adults … A winter that recalls our summer 2020, the cold after all many remain inside, without respecting the barrier gestures.
So, logically, the increasing increase in R on the eve of the holidays, exceeding it from 1.2 to 1.3 would be enough to revive the epidemic.
Apart from the target of January 20 and a possible lifting of the restrictions, these estimates say nothing about the months to come. As such, the arrival of a vaccine represents real hope. We must hope that they are at the rendezvous of a new wave of contamination. What to avoid a new spiral of restrictions.
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