Coronavirus: The next few months will be covid’s “worst-case scenario” in the United States, says the expert



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COVID-19 :

Biden and Harris measure to contain covid-19 9:53 am

. – Across the United States, preparations are underway to rapidly roll out covid-19 vaccines once authorized, but experts say that before this promise of relief, the next few months are likely to be difficult.

What comes next is arguably the “worst case in the country in terms of overwhelmed hospitals, in terms of the number of deaths,” according to emergency medicine doctor Leana Wen.

“There are so many viruses in our communities right now,” he says.

His words echoed a grim prognosis from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Robert Redfield, who warned Wednesday that the next three months would be “the most difficult in public health history.” this nation.

It is a sad reality that is already reflected in the figures. Over the past two days, more than 200,000 new cases have been registered every day. And as the number of infections increased, the United States has added a million cases to the total number every six days for the past three weeks.

Hospitalizations also hit six figures for the first time this week, with more than 100,600 COVID-19 patients across the country, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

And for the second consecutive day, Thursday, the United States reported more than 2,800 deaths from covid-19, breaking a grim record the country had set the day before.

Health systems under stress

High-ranking health officials have long warned that the increase in the number of cases would be followed by an increase in the number of hospitalizations that could cripple health systems across the country. Hospitals and experts across the United States are ringing the alarm bell.

Marvin O’Quinn, president and chief operating officer of CommonSpirit Health, which operates hospitals in 21 states, told CNN they are seeing an increase in patient numbers across all hospitals.

“We now have around 2,100 positive cases in our hospitals. That’s an almost 70% increase since November 11, “O’Quinn said.” We are seeing 70 to 100 new cases every day. “

LIS: US reports more than 3,100 coronavirus deaths in a single day, 20% more than the previous record

In Pennsylvania, just under 5,000 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 and two parts of the state are nearing a staff shortage, Health Secretary Dr Rachel Levine said Thursday.

“It’s very important to remember that we all need to be aware, that we all have a role to play in what’s going on in hospitals right now,” Levine said. “You may not need hospital care right now; You may not have a loved one in the hospital right now. But what happens in our hospitals has a direct impact on you. This has a direct impact on the mitigation measures needed to contain the spread of the virus.

“The people who make our healthcare system work trust you to do the right thing,” he continued.

In Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine warned that hospitals were not only in crisis, but “the crisis is getting worse and worse.”

Dr. Andy Thomas of Ohio State University’s Wexner Medical Center told reporters that a third of ICU patients across the state tested positive for COVID-19. In some rural hospitals, patients with Covid-19 represented up to 60 percent of the ICU population, Thomas added.

“It is not possible for these hospitals to function,” said Thomas. “The most difficult area for hospitals to increase their capacity, or the number of beds, is in the intensive care unit.”

And hospitals across the country are yet to see the impact Thanksgiving gatherings and trips could have, and another wave is expected to begin materializing in the coming weeks.

Michael Osterholm, a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Covid-19 transition advisory committee, said action is urgently needed to slow the spread and prevent hospitals from being “overrun.”

“I’d rather do it now and try to avoid future cases than wait and try to organize this when the house is so on fire that we have climbed over our cliff and the hospitals are literally overrun,” he said. “This is what we have to face.”

Strict new measures

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In California, hospitals are treating about 2,066 patients with COVID-19 in intensive care units, according to data from the state health department. This is the highest figure since the beginning of the pandemic.

The sad figure comes when Governor Gavin Newsom announced a strict regional order to stay home. The order will take effect 48 hours after the hospital’s intensive care unit capacity drops below 15% in one of five regions the state is divided into: Northern California, Baia Area, Greater Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California.

Projections show that four of these five regions will reach that threshold in the coming days, with only the Bay region expected to remain open from mid-December to late December, Newsom said.

“We are at a crossroads in our fight against the virus and we must take decisive action now to prevent the California hospital system from being overwhelmed in the weeks to come,” he said.

Delaware Governor John Carney on Thursday announced a stay-at-home recommendation, asking residents to avoid indoor encounters with anyone outside their homes from December 14 to January 11, he said. – declares. the governor’s office.

“A vaccine is on the way but, don’t get me wrong, we are going through the toughest months of this crisis,” the governor said in a statement. “I know we’re all tired of covid-19, but he’s not tired of us. We beg the people of Delaware to do the right thing. “

Meanwhile, the Navajo Nation lockdown that expires at the end of this weekend will now be extended for another three weeks.

“Our health experts are now saying that the current wave or epidemic is far more serious and troublesome than the wave we saw in April and May,” President Jonathan Nez said in a written statement Thursday.

In the event of a lockdown, Navajo citizens are required to stay home at all times, except for essential activities, emergencies, and outdoor exercises.

LIS: Why was the UK the first to authorize a coronavirus vaccine?

Governors predict that the first doses of the vaccine will arrive soon

Meanwhile, state and local leaders have begun to provide information on when they expect the first batches of the vaccine to arrive. No vaccines have been approved for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Thursday that the city should receive the first round of covid-19 vaccines in about 12 days. Initial doses will come from Pfizer and about a week later the city will receive Moderna’s vaccines, de Blasio said.

The priority will be vaccinating health workers, high-risk workers and nursing home residents, the mayor said.

“In time, there will be enough vaccines for everyone,” de Blasio said, but for now the city is working on “faster and more efficient distribution.”

In New Hampshire, the governor announced that the state plans to receive the first doses of Pfizer vaccine in the third week of December, adding that the Moderna vaccine will arrive the following week.

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker said he was planning about 300,000 doses of the covid-19 vaccine by the end of the month. Healthcare workers, residents and staff at long-term care facilities “will absolutely top the list” for the first few doses, Baker said, as the state prepares to officially release its treatment plan. distribution on Friday.

Redfield, director of the CDC, accepted the covid-19 vaccine recommendations that were voted on this week by the agency’s advisory committee on immunization practices.

Councilors voted 13-1 on Tuesday to recommend that health workers and residents of long-term care facilities be first in line for any FDA-cleared vaccine. But senior federal health officials say the CDC’s guidelines are just that: guidelines.

States can use these recommendations, along with advice from other experts, to come up with the best allocation plans for their residents based on their circumstances, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Thursday.

What challenges await us?

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Senior health officials are continually working to determine how vaccine distribution would work best in different communities once the green light is given.

“There’s a huge gap between a loading dock and a person’s arm,” said Rick Bright, a member of Biden’s Covid-19 transition advisory committee. “We are looking very closely at the complicated path from vaccine production to delivery and administration of this vaccine.”

“We understand that there is still a lot of work to be done at the local, state and tribal and territorial levels to ensure that there is an infrastructure in place to be able to deliver these vaccines, to” make sure there are people in place and that they are trained to be able to administer vaccines, “he said.

In addition, he said, work is still ongoing to ensure that there are messengers in every community who inform residents “in all the languages ​​necessary to ensure that people can understand the language. this vaccine is worth and trust this vaccine and line up to get this vaccine.

The biggest challenge remains, according to Dr Marcella Núñez-Smith, co-chair of the advisory board.

“In some of our most affected communities, we know there is some degree of hesitation and caution about vaccines,” he told NBC News.

“What we need to do is find out what questions people are asking,” he said. “At the same time, we must recognize that trust between the Americans and the federal government has weakened and that it will take work to rebuild and restore that trust.”

Andrea Diaz, Taylor Romine, Andy Rose, Cheri Mossburg, Rebekah Riess, Ganesh Setty, Shelby Lin Erdman, Sahar Akbarzai, Jon Passantino and Evan Simko-Bednarski contributed to this report.

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