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Among our southern neighbors, we are already talking about a ” bust of the child A drop in births of around 15% in 2021, the largest drop in birth rates in America since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 and the Great Depression.
By comparison, the 1929 crash led to a 15% drop in pregnancies, while the Spanish flu reduced the number of babies born by 13%. The last recession of 2008, however, caused the number of babies born in the United States to drop by 10% the following year.
“A 15% drop in four months doesn’t sound like much, but it’s huge. It’s historical, in demographic terms, “says Joshua Wilde, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, author of a study that predicts such a decline in births between November 2020 and February 2021 in the United States. His projections are based on the remarkable drop in queries made for some keywords related to pregnancy, observed on the Google search engine since last winter.
The model developed by the researcher, based on monthly birth rates recorded for 15 years in the United States and the most widespread research carried out six to eight months earlier for certain terms related to pregnancy, allows to accurately predict the births coming up. The predictive nature of internet queries is often used in other fields of research, particularly to measure the circulation of the flu virus.
“The associations observed between 2004 and 2019 between the popularity of some words and the fertility rate nine months later are extremely strong. We have faith in our model “, explained a Must Joshua Wilde, arrived in Germany.
Among the most convincing digital traces, announcing the arrival of children, are the keywords “Clear Blue” (brand pregnancy test), ovulation, pregnancy test, morning sickness, all less used in recent months. On the other hand, the frequency of the words “unemployment” and “layoffs” jumped on search engines, another precursor to a decline in births.
“Searches for the word” unemployment “went up 20 times when the US blockade began. They are still ten times higher than normal today, “explains Wilde.” Couples fear economic uncertainty first, more than the virus, “adds the researcher.
And this downward curve could affect some states and subgroups most affected by unemployment, such as African Americans (nearly 16%), Wilde notes. In Hawaii, the birth rate could drop as low as 24%.
Many other researchers are also beginning to measure COVID’s demographic cost to society. In addition to the thousands of deaths, up to half a million children may not see the light in 2021 in the United States, according to a study by the Brookings Institute, an independent research group based in Washington.
Unlike the epidemic of 1918, which occurred without an economic crisis, the one caused by COVID, already described as ” she-recession », It affects women head-on. Not only due to the thousands of jobs lost in restaurants and hotels, the work overload experienced in health and education-related jobs, mostly performed by women, but also due to job loss. householder imposed on many women by teleworking.
“Current conditions are likely to continue for many people. Many of these births will not be postponed, but they will never happen. There will be a “bust of the child“COVID-19. This will be another cost of this terrible episode,” writes Melissa S. Kearney, co-author of this research, who specifies that every 1% increase in the unemployment rate reduces the birth rate by the same amount.
Also in Quebec
Quebec has already been experiencing a significant decline in births since April. COVID effect? Hard to say, given that the births in spring and last summer were the result of pregnancies that began before the pandemic. But according to Chantal Lapointe, a demographer at the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ), the observed decline, of around 1,700 births for the second and third quarters, could be explained by the significant drop in the number of immigrants. hospitalized in Quebec since the start of the health crisis. “This seems to us the most likely hypothesis, because 33% of children born in Quebec come from couples with an immigrant. What is clear for 2019 is that there is a downward trend. “
While another 600 births were recorded from January to April 2020, the decline in births has been steady since May. “The number of women of childbearing age has not decreased,” says the demographer, “but it is possible that the fertility for every woman is decreasing. It will take several years to measure the true effect of COVID on the fertility rate and see if these births will be postponed to 2022 or 2023, or canceled altogether. “
One thing is certain, during the pandemic, Quebec welcomed 13,000 to 18,000 fewer immigrants than expected. According to Statistics Canada, the closure of immigration offices, fertility clinics and the suspension of adoption processes are expected to contribute to a population decline across the country in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In the United States, the current second wave violence could do so ” bust of the child Beyond 2021, Joshua Wilde thinks. Preliminary data collected by this researcher suggests that some European countries, such as Germany and the UK, will be spared more, with expected birth rates of 5%. “Even if the unemployment rate remains high, social measures compensate and help individuals, which is not the case in the United States. “
For the hardest hit countries, this demographic decline will not be without effects, he says. The aging structure of the population will have long-term repercussions on the state’s tax revenues, as well as on the ability to finance various public services, including schools, hospitals and pension funds.
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