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The CoviRisque tool, launched by the founder of the CovidTracker site Guillaume Rozier, evaluates the risk that one of the participants in an event is positive for Covid-19.
To prevent the coronavirus epidemic from recurring, Emmanuel Macron encouraged the French, during his speech on Tuesday, November 24, to continue to stay at home, telework when possible, and forgo private reunions and family reunions in the coming weeks. .
However, on December 24th and December 31st there will be no curfew (introduced from 9:00 pm to 7:00 am as soon as the birth is lifted on December 15th), in order to allow the French to get together as a family to celebrate Christmas and New Year. “It is imperative to limit the number of people at the table and avoid too many meetings,” said Prime Minister Jean Castex.
If limiting the number of guests in the same room greatly reduces the risk of contamination, a new tool, CoviRisque, allows us to go further by assessing the risk that one of the participants is positive for Covid-19. “The calculator already existed, but now it is suitable for a more precise simulation, for example for a Christmas lunch”, explains Guillaume Rozier, founder of the site Covid Tracker and the tool CoviRisque.
How does it work ? “We choose the number of people attending the event, then a department. The tool recovers the incidence, that is the rate of virus activity, within this department. With these two information, we can estimate the risk that there is a positive person, “explains Guillaume Rozier. For example, if we choose the Haute-Garonne department, with 8 participants, the risk that there is a positive person rises to 1.2%.
Simulation of an event that brings together 8 people in Haute-Garonne
In other words “if we observed 100 events similar to this one, then in 1.2 of them there would be on average at least one positive case, which could in turn contaminate the other participants”, it indicates. If we increase the number of participants to 10, the risk rises to 1.5%. At 15 people, it’s 2.3%, etc.
If the participants are from different departments, as can happen at a Christmas dinner, you can add one or more departments to the simulation. So, if we select an event with 10 people, including 5 from Haute-Garonne and 5 more from Paris, the risk rises to 1.6%.
Simulation of an event with 10 people, including 5 from Haute-Garonne and 5 more from Paris
Another clarification provided by CoviRisque, the number of contact cases generated if all Frenchmen met in events of similar size in their department:
Example of the number of contact cases generated
Numbers that “increase very rapidly when the number of guests increases”, underlines Guillaume Rozier.
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