Coronavirus: A third wave soon in France? The three scenarios of an expert

On November 24, Emmanuel Macron announced the terms of the reduced prison term. The second imprisonment should be lifted on 15 December. It will give way to curfew.

But yet, some epidemiologists fear a contamination epidemic in January, after the holiday season. There is even talk of a third imprisonment if the epidemic were to resume. As a reminder, the president had announced the reopening of buildings and restaurants on January 20, if the number of contamination from Covid-19 dropped below 5,000 per day.

Three scenarios considered

The professor-researcher in epidemiology and bio-statistics at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, Pascal Crépey, returns to Parisien on three probable scenarios for the evolution of the epidemic in France, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic.

The three advanced models are based on the level of reproduction of the virus in the population, also called “R”. An R index greater than 1 means that the epidemic is increasing, a lower level that the epidemic is decreasing.

1- The scenario of a third wave

The third wave scenario is considered likely, but it is obviously preventable. The various hypotheses are based entirely on the collective behavior of the population.

In this context, the French would let go, like this summer. They would organize meals with a large number of people. The barrier gestures would be temporarily forgottenand the cold doesn’t help, the population would remain indoors.

The children would continue to go to school. The epidemic would then have started again, with an R index greater than “1.2 to 1.3”, notes Le Parisien. Consequently, the President of the Republic would be obliged, once again, to announce binding measures and potentially new containment.

2- The scenario of a moderate recovery

Strictly speaking, compliance with the rules seems complicated. The epidemic could then resume, moderately. “We will not prevent the virus from circulating”, says Professor Pascal Crépey in the newspaper.

The virus could circulate a little more during family meals especially for Christmas and New Year. However, how children no longer go to school and many workers are on vacation, the impact may be less.

“The important thing is that the virus does not circulate enough for the R to become greater than 1 again,” comments Pascal Crépey. Thereby, we would not exceed 5,000 cases of daily contamination.

3- Last scenario: no resumption of the epidemic

This is the most optimistic of the three scenarios. The epidemic is unlikely to resume e the virus reproduction rate would remain below 1. This latest model is reliant on strict compliance with the rules by the French, inexorably

This option would be possible if the French met reasonably, within a limited time, and if they respected the barrier gestures. “If the contaminations are punctual on December 25th and January 1st, that we only find ourselves with 5 or 6 adults and that we separate directly after dinner, that’s fine.“explains Pascal Crépey. He also warns the “large groups of adults” who meet for several days in the same place “without respecting the barrier gestures”.

In short, the realization of one of these scenarios depends entirely on the respect of the health rules by the entire population. Around the world, several countries are experiencing a third epidemic wave of new coronavirus cases.