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That is why in the spring in the Bavarian capital, according to a representative antibody test, an estimated mortality from infection of 0.76% was found
See the LMU Munich study: Munich Corona Antibody Study: The death rate from infections is “many times higher than for seasonal flu infections”
There are infected people, especially those without symptoms, without antibodies. The Karolingska study in Stockholm determined a 4: 9 ratio from blood donor samples in May 2020. This means that SARS-CoV-2 specific memory T cells were found in nine of 31 blood donor samples. healthy, but only in four of them the corresponding antibodies. Because the development of antibodies is already the escalation stage of the immune system when it does not reach the limit with the elimination of the intruder by the killer T cells, which are invited by the memory T cells.
And Jena’s study also produced the same result:
We were surprised that half of the infected people in whom the virus was detected six weeks earlier did not have antibody titers, even though we searched for them with six different tests, “explained the head of the study, Professor Matthias Pletz. […]
Does this mean that we need to double the number of unreported cases? I think so. We can assume that not 1.8%, but rather 3.6% of Munich residents have been infected, meanwhile it should be significantly more. For herd immunity, this makes no difference, it’s still a long way off. But it reduces the IFR, the “death rate from infection”, the mortality or death rate of COVID-19 by half, that is, to about 0.38%.
Heinsberg’s study by virologist Hendrik Streek came up with a very similar result, which found a value of 0.37%. But this is apparently the result of two balancing factors: again, only the measurement of antibodies. The number of people infected in Heinsberg would likely have been double in a T-cell test.However, the mortality was apparently only half because the population group with the highest mortality – the residents of retirement homes – was not. hit or was just a little. There have been no outbreaks in a nursing home like in Wolfsburg, for example.
So, if we accept 0.4% lethality, what does it mean for a vaccine-free world? If 70 percent are to be infected so that the remaining 30 percent are infected just by accident, then that would be 80 million x 0.7 x 0.004 = 224,000 C-19 deaths.
If this happened within three months, for example with no contact restrictions and no masks and with celebrations as usual and with an R-value as high as COVID-19, then we would have almost exactly doubled the otherwise usual deaths in these three months. And of course total chaos in hospitals.
If this happened in waves over four years, mainly in the six winter months, then there would be just under 10,000 more deaths in the flu months, or a whopping 300 per day, but that would also put intensive care units under heavy load. or even overloaded.
Maybe you should think about what’s behind the seasonality of not just COVID-19, but the flu as well. Because flu waves in the Southern Hemisphere work exactly the same, so rock out there when summer starts here and fall is there. Because they are only about half as strong in the tropics, but obviously suitable for the respective hemisphere season. And because there is hardly any seasonality at the equator, but also only a low incidence all year round. But there is also an excess of prominence, an upward peak due to the flu, at the equator: in the rainy season. When would the virus presumably prefer it to be cold and dry?
But with the cloud cover there is not even the sun. And no UVB radiation and therefore no vitamin D formation.
(Lorenz Borsche)
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