Circulation of Covid in France: good news and unknowns

In the end, it seems to work. Seeing so many people passing by on the street, in the office or in grocery stores, one might doubt the effectiveness of the new “flexible” containment. But data provided Thursday evening by Prime Minister Jean Castex and Public Health France’s weekly bulletin, published shortly thereafter, show that the objectives are achieved for the time being: a slow regression of the coronavirus epidemic, with a reproduction number “R” (how many people are infected on average by each carrier) fallen “Between 0.8 and 0.9”, according to the head of the government, against the 1.3-1.4 in October.

Such confinement is less effective than that of the spring, where the “R” was reduced to 0.7, but this is the price to pay for schools to remain open and economic life to be partially preserved.

We don’t know why the epidemic is calming down

Except in reality, we don’t really know why the epidemic is subsiding. In its bulletin, which covers the week from 2 to 8 November, the first of the reconfirmation, Public Health France notes “A possible favorable evolution of the transmission dynamics”, “With contrasting situations by region”. These effects “To propose an effect of the strengthening of the barrier measures and social distancing of the last weeks and in particular of the subsequent implementation of the various curfews linked to the communication on the epidemiological situation”.

In other words, people are more careful because they realized that the situation was serious, and this is measured in the adoption of the mask, the distance meter, the washing of the hands, the ventilation of the rooms …

However, the impact of the government-imposed restrictions on movement is still unknown. Containment? Its effects “It can be observed in the coming weeks”. The general curfew of October 24? We will see, also there, in “Next two or three weeks”, writes the agency.

Data for early November “Suggest a possible impact of the braking measures in metropolitan areas under curfew on October 17”, concede the authors of the summary, “However, it is not possible to establish the part that returns to the effect of the braking measures with respect to concomitant factors”. The improvement that “It also seems to start in other metropolises” According to Public Health France it could be due to a simple one “Resonance effect that would lead to a change in behavior” and not at the next generalized curfew!

Antigenic tests not counted

Pending the potentially even greater effects of the generalized curfew and therefore of the re-containment, we can only be pleased to see all the indicators in the right direction since November. Contamination decreased by 14% from November 2 to 8 (on average 41,000 cases detected per day compared to 47,600 in the previous week) and by 16% in a rolling week on November 12. The incidence, which at the end of October was close to 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, on Monday 9 November dropped to 392 / 100,000 in a rolling week. The positivity rate dropped below 19% after reaching 21% in late October.

Public Health France reports a breeding number of 0.93 (it has slightly decreased since then). The agency also highlights the disparity of indicators. If we calculate this “R” no longer from screening data, but from hospitalizations or emergency room visits, it is still 1.13 and 1.06, respectively, which means the epidemic continues to grow. (values ​​greater than 1). Finally, the projection “R” remained that week greater than 1 in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and in the Grand Est.

Be careful, then. Especially since the arrival of the antigen tests three weeks ago could have skewed the incidence calculations, because they are not counted in the screening file. “However, according to the available data on the volumes of antigen tests carried out, it seems that their exclusion does not question the decrease in the observed incidence”, writes Public Health France, promising to include this data “Soon” in the Si-Dep base.

Admissions grow less rapidly

The increase in hospitalizations continued, with an average of 2,848 people hospitalized every day against 2,492 in the previous week. But this growth is more measured than the previous week: 14% instead of 43%. Similarly, ICU admissions grew 17% versus 43% the previous week, at a rate of 434 per day, up from 372 the previous week. It is still climbing, but slower.

Simulations unveiled on Thursday by the government show that peak resuscitation could be reached in about a week. “If containment works”, it is mentioned in this simulation, there may have been fewer than 6,000 Covid patients concurrently in intensive care at the height of the crisis, while the spring peak had passed 7,000 Covid patients and more than 7,700 beds have already been armed.