Bitcoin briefly climbed above $ 16,000 for the first time in three years before quickly plunging back below the psychological threshold.
Digital asset market traders and analysts say cryptocurrency is likely to rise again, with strong demand expected from traditional investors seeking hedge against inflation, at a time when sellers seem reluctant to part with their bitcoin holdings.
“Against the backdrop of Federal Reserve stimulus, we expect investors holding cash to continue to allocate in bitcoin,” said Kyle Davies, co-founder of digital asset fund Three Arrows Capital.
In traditional markets, European equities have moved towards their first decline of the week on the basis of disappointing earnings reports and US stock futures have indicated a bearish opening.
A panel discussion between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled for 5:45 pm Central European Time (4:45 pm Coordinated Universal Time , 11:45 a.m. in New York). The argument is “central banks in a changing world”.
Gold strengthened 0.2% to $ 1,870 an ounce.
Read more: Bitcoin’s price surpasses $ 16,000 for the first time in 3 years
Market movements
Okay, apparently hedge fund titan Ray Dalio doesn’t like bitcoins.
But guess who doesn’t sell? People who already own it and try to profit from it.
The oldest and largest cryptocurrency doubled last year and doubled again in 2020. Compare that to the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of large US stocks, which has gained 44% since the beginning of 2019.
So what has happened, according to data extracted from the Bitcoin blockchain, is that holders of a common form of cryptocurrency are now almost unanimously in the money – sitting on paper profits, so to speak. And this could be because they simply don’t want to part with the digital asset that has already made them so much money.
It also means that no one is even close to having to cut the bait. And since many investors see bitcoin as an out-of-the-money option on an economic armageddon, rampant inflation, a revolution in financial technology, or all of the above, they’re just letting the bet ride.
As reported on Thursday by CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole, the percentage of so-called “unspent transaction outputs”, or UTXO, recently exceeded 98%, a level not seen since the bull run at the end of 2017. in profit it reached a record of over 110 million. A UTXO is bitcoin remaining after a transaction, similar to receiving change after making a large cash payment.
“A high percentage of UTXO in profit potentially indicates that there is relatively low selling pressure as there is low risk of capitulation,” cryptocurrency analyst Coin Metrics wrote in a report this week.
Sure, bitcoin could be the largest bubble the world has ever seen, and holders may delude themselves into believing these gains can continue forever. It could also be that bitcoin is just at the beginning of that bubble.
Charlie Morris, CEO of cryptocurrency fund manager ByteTree, has argued throughout the year that bitcoin is indeed a technology, which partly explains why it has historically traded in sync with the Nasdaq stock index. On Thursday, Morris noted in a newsletter that bitcoin has recently, and significantly, started outperforming the big tech stocks. (See the table below.)
“Just as investors flock to gold when they see it outperform the stock market, I believe bitcoin will attract capital from technology,” Morris wrote. “We can be pretty sure the technology is a bubble, but bitcoin is not.”
It so happens that many hedge funds such as Dalio’s Bridgewater publish their records when they are looking for funds by large investors such as pension funds, endowments and wealthy family wealth offices. (At least a Twitter troll was quick to compare the performance of Dalio’s fund with that of bitcoin. Spoiler alert: Dalio loses.)
Either way, bitcoin holders seem satisfied with the cryptocurrency’s performance and appear to stick to it.
Bitcoin Watch
Bitcoin’s first attempt to establish a foothold above $ 16,000 per hour has failed. The cryptocurrency climbed to a three-year high of $ 16,157 early Thursday only to quickly jump back to $ 15,700.
Failure to maintain earnings above the psychological hurdle could be attributed to overbought conditions signaled by technical indicators.
Analysts told CoinDesk on Wednesday that the cryptocurrency is likely to consolidate for a couple of weeks before resuming the bullish trend and challenging the record high of $ 20,000 by the end of December.
It remains to be seen whether the bulls take a pause as anticipated by the analyst or push for the first tests of all-time highs. The latter cannot be ruled out as the market is facing liquidity problems on the selling side and it is easier for bulls to force rapid price hikes. The options market exhibits strong bullish sentiment with the demand for call options far outstripping the demand for put options.
The cryptocurrency is back at $ 15,900 and may soon be back above $ 16,000. Another rejection above that level would validate overbought signals and could produce a greater pullback than seen earlier Thursday.
Read more: Bitcoin could consolidate before December goes up towards $ 20K, analysts say
What’s new
Ethereum’s “ unannounced hard fork ” was trying to prevent the inconvenience it caused (CoinDesk)
DeFi Pioneer MakerDAO Dollar-Linked DAI Stablecoin Breaks $ 1 Billion Market Cap (CoinDesk)
Stablecoin Issuer TrustToken Uses Chainlink (LINK) for On-Chain Proof of Reserves for Dollar Linked TrueUSD Token (CoinDesk)
US Representatives Snatch OCC Commissioner Brooks For ‘Excessive Attention’ To Cryptocurrency Industry (CoinDesk)
Dalio of Bridgewater sees governments ban bitcoin should become “material” (CoinDesk)
African startups should tokenize debt and equity on the blockchain to “break the curse of the white man” (CoinDesk opinion)
Pakistani Securities Regulators Publish Regulatory Position PaperSEC Pakistan)
Venezuela’s peer-to-peer bitcoin volume relative to the size of its economy is the highest in the world, due to factors including migration, capital controls, risk of government seizure, strong money demand, and exposure to petro. , the government-backed cryptocurrency (CoinDesk)
Ethereum heavyweights launch LiquidStake loans to stake stakers in 2.0 staking system starting upgrade tests (CoinDesk)
Flash loans aren’t the problem, centralized pricing oracles are (CoinDesk opinion)
Analogues
The latest news on traditional economics and finance
OPEC Deepens Forecasts of Falling Global Oil Demand, Down 10% from 2020 Levels, Lower Expectations for 2021 Rebound (WSJ)
U.S. commercial banks are cutting already low interest rates on customer savings as deposits rise to $ 15.9t from $ 13.2t at the start of the year (WSJ)
Russia says “Sputnik V” vaccine is 92% effective in preventing coronavirus cases (Reuters)
Japan’s Nikkei Index hit a nearly 29-and-a-half-year high on the back of favorable tech stock trading in Asia and the US (Reuters)
The failed IPO of Jack Ma’s Ant group has led several companies to promote their offerings in Hong Kong looking to take advantage of excess liquidity (Nikkei Asian Review)
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