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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
We are in the last two months of the year, which historically proved to be valid for Bitcoin. So, will the markets rise from their current levels by the end of December?
During a recent simulation of three econometric models by Greg Giordano and Panos Mourdoukoutas, two models indicated a rally at current levels, while the third showed a sharp fall.
The most bullish outcome was a rally at $ 12,629.15, while the most bearish was a decline to $ 816.91. The third model projected a small rally for $ 8.573.56.
Today marks the deadline for members of the public to submit proposals to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on its consideration of some Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) proposals. A final decision on ETFs will not be taken until the beginning of 2019.
In its latest annual report, the SEC stated that its goal is to reduce the amount of cryptocurrency related fraud. If the SEC succeed in this effort, it will strengthen confidence in the asset class and will attract institutional and retail investors alike.
How do traders position themselves when December approaches? What are the key levels to look at, both up and down? Let's find out.
BTC / USD
Bitcoin is currently close to moving averages, which have both turned flat. RSI is also near the midpoint, which shows a neutral feeling. Both bulls and bears are currently waiting and see the mode.
The positive news in a "year-end" expectation for Bitcoin could push the bulls to try to get out of $ 6,831.99 and reach the next resistance at the head of $ 7,400.
Conversely, while the markets remain largely stagnant and tied to the range, the pessimism and revaluations of the year-end price of Bitcoin could push the bears to attempt to break from the critical support zone of $ 5,900- $ 6,075.04.
In 2018, the BTC / USD pair held the $ 5,900 mark on many occasions. Thus, traders can maintain a stop loss of $ 5,900 on their long positions. A breakdown of this can trigger a series of stop losses, resulting in a rapid decline to $ 5,450 and over $ 5,000.
ETH / USD
The rebound from the $ 188.35 support brought Ethereum to the 50-day SMA that acts as a resistance. If the bulls survive above the 50-day SMA, a top-level rally at $ 249.93 is likely.
We are not suggesting a trade at current levels because moving averages are flat and RSI has just entered positive territory. The indicators do not indicate a trend reversal.
The ETH / USD pair is likely to take a new uptrend once it is over $ 249.93. Traders can buy the closing (UTC time frame) over this resistance. Our bullish view will be invalidated if bears sink the price under $ 188.35 and $ 167.32.
XRP / USD
The narrow range in Ripple has resolved towards the top. This shows that the bulls have the upper hand in the short term. We expect the virtual currency to resume its upward move and reach $ 0.62, with a lower resistance of $ 0.55. Therefore, we suggested a purchase on a breakout and close (UTC timeframe) above $ 0.48.
We expect a strong closure because in a down market this strategy keeps us away from false breakouts. However, when the markets become bullish, we will change strategy and buy breakouts, as waiting for the price to close above a certain level may lead to missed exchanges.
The 50-day SMA is on the rise and even the 20-day EMA has started to appear. RSI has also grown in positive territory. All these indicators indicate a possible rally in the XRP / USD pair. Our bullish view will be invalidated if bears sink the price below $ 0.425.
BCH / USD
Bitcoin Cash has embarked on an upward trend. Promoted by the fundamental news, it has risen sharply from the critical support of $ 408,012.
A break of $ 488 invalidated the descending pattern of the triangle. Usually, when a bearish pattern is denied, it is a sign to go out and buy.
The BCH / USD pullback accelerated over $ 488 and quickly hit the lead at $ 591.41. If this level is exceeded, the next upside target is $ 660.0753.
Traders who are long can keep their stop loss at $ 400. The RSI has reached the overbought zone. Therefore, a couple of days of consolidation is possible, after which the digital currency should resume its recovery and try to exit $ 660.0753.
EOS / USD
EOS has increased near the midpoint of the narrow range of $ 5- $ 6. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above level 50.
The current rebound from around $ 5 could bring the EOS / USD pair to $ 6, above which a $ 6.8299 rally is likely. If the bulls can not scale the $ 6 mark, the action related to the interval will be extended.
We anticipate the digital currency to start a new uptrend with a breakout of over $ 6.8299. The target levels to keep in mind are $ 9.1668 and $ 11.4. Traders holding long positions can keep their stops at $ 4.90.
XLM / USD
Stellar came out of moving averages. It is currently attempting to support above the downtrend line of the descending triangle. We expect strong resistance in the area from $ 0.24 to $ 0.27.
If the bulls sustain above the downtrend line of the descending triangle, they will invalidate the bearish pattern, which is a bullish sign.
Above $ 0.27, we expect the XLM / USD pair to rally to $ 0.36, with less resistance to $ 0.304. Traders can profit from the rally by starting long positions on a close (UTC time frame) above $ 0.27 and keeping the stop loss at $ 0.20.
LTC / USD
The rebound from the support zone $ 47.246- $ 49.466 brought Litecoin to the 50-day SMA, triggering our purchase recommendation made in a previous analysis. Traders who have entered long positions can keep their stock at $ 47.
Bears could provide a stiff resistance in the area between the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line of the descending triangle. Traders can book partial profits close to the downtrend line and keep the remaining position, because a $ 60 break will invalidate the bearish pattern and may result in a rally at the top of the range at $ 69.279.
The LTC / USD pair has been stuck in the $ 49,466 to $ 69,279 range since the start of August. If the bulls release the environmental resistance, we expect a new upward trend to start. Therefore, positional traders can go long to close above $ 69,279.
ADA / USD
The bears could not capitalize on the break of the symmetrical triangle. Cardano found support at $ 0.068989 and rebounded from there. He entered the triangle again, invalidating the break. This is a positive sign.
If the bulls push the price above $ 0.082207, the ADA / USD pair could reach the minimum target of $ 0.114618. Aggressive traders can buy a close above $ 0.082207 with the stop loss placed below the intraday low of October 31st. If the price strives to come out of $ 0.094256, stops can be dragged higher or positions can be closed.
XMR / USD
Monero rose above the immediate resistance of $ 112.44 on October 4th. If the bulls sustain above this level, a rally towards the top of the range is likely. Above $ 128.65, the move upward can extend to $ 150, which will act as a stiff resistance.
If bears push the price below the 50-day SMA, the action related to the interval may continue. The XMR / USD pair will weaken if it slips below $ 100.453.
We will wait for a new upward trend before recommending any operation.
TRX / USD
TRON has reached the midpoint of the range $ 0.0183- $ 0.02815521. It rose above both the moving averages and the RSI also exceeded the 50 level, which is slightly positive.
Although the movement within the interval is random, if the bulls are able to stay above moving averages, a gradual climb to the top of the range is likely to be $ 0.02815521. A new uptrend could start if the price resizes above $ 0.03.
If the purchase runs out at current levels, the TRX / USD pair may slip to $ 0.02134798. A break of this support can retest critical support to $ 0.0183.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Analysis charts are provided by TradingView.
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