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Nearly a third of UK hospital trusts have passed the peak of the first wave of Covid patients undergoing treatment, as scientists have warned that unwinding or tearing down the three-tier system too quickly could further hamper the NHS.
The Guardian’s analysis shows that hospital trusts in South Somerset and Devon treated more than twice as many patients with Covid at least one day last week last week compared to the peak of the first wave in the spring. But, reflecting the fact that level decisions are based on a series of data, both areas will enter Level 2 from Thursday.
In contrast, Manchester University Hospital Trust treated 31% fewer patients with Covid last week than in the busiest week of the first wave (295 versus 428). The whole of Greater Manchester will enter the most stringent level 3 this week.
Although much of South West England avoided Level 3, more than half of the acute NHS trusts in the region treated more Covid patients at least one day last week than their first wave spike. The same was true for half of the trusts in the north-west and north-east and for a third of those in the Midlands, almost all level 3.
The data comes amid a discussion about Michael Gove’s warning that the health service, including the Nightingale Emergency Hospitals, was in danger of being “physically overwhelmed.”
The cabinet minister intervened ahead of the municipalities vote on the new three-tier system which triggered a backlash from conservative MPs, many of whom say their constituencies will be subject to overly draconian measures despite low infection rates. stable or declining.
In an effort to calm the rebellion, Boris Johnson signaled that some areas could be moved to lower levels after a December 16 review, if there was “solid evidence” that the coronavirus is steadily declining, with the level system potentially shelved in nine weeks unless MPs vote to keep it.
But its confidence in reducing the number of infections within weeks has been questioned by senior scientists and health leaders, as the Guardian’s analysis of hospitalization data points to risks to the NHS in some areas.
In the East Riding of Yorkshire, for example, some residents have gotten angry about being in level 3 despite a lower infection rate (287 out of 100,000) in the week through November 21 than in several London boroughs, which will be in level 2 ( Havering, for example, had 338 out of 100,000 in the same period).
Yet area hospitals are now treating far more Covid patients than in spring. The Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust had 185 Covid patients in the week through November 24, up from 75 in the busiest week of the first wave.
Dr Layla McCay, director of the NHS Confederation, warned: “The national blockade may come to an end, but NHS leaders tell us they are still facing the triple setback of treating Covid patients, providing wider care services. and prepare for winter.
“As hospital admissions from the virus continue to present enormous challenges, this terrible disease is also extending other parts of the NHS, including primary health, mental health and community care, which are very subtle.”
Dr Chaand Nagpaul, president of the British Medical Association, said it would be a mistake to loosen the restrictions too soon. “If we are to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed this winter and left unable to provide both critical and broader care to all those who need it, we must do everything we can to bring the spread of the virus under control,” he said.
“We don’t know where we’ll be in two weeks, let alone nine weeks, but whatever decisions are made at that time must be based on the most up-to-date data on infection levels and pressure on the NHS.”
Nagpaul described the previous tier system, introduced in October, as inadequate and ineffective to stop the rise in infections and warned that without stricter measures this time another national blockade would follow.
Scientists echoed the warning. Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor of cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, and Peter Openshaw, professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, said they did not expect enough data to emerge by December 16 to ease the restrictions. .
Clarke said easing the level limits would be more a political decision than a science-based one. “It is inevitable that it will lead to an increase in the number of new infections. However, January and February are the worst months for respiratory infections, regardless of the current pandemic. These factors combined will inevitably result in more hospital admissions and deaths, ”he said.
Openshaw said: “We scientists are really very concerned about the relaxation of precautions at this stage. The rates are still too high, there are too many cases arriving in hospitals, too many people are dying. And if we take the brakes off at this stage, just when the end is in sight, I think we would make a big mistake, “he told the BBC.
An NHS spokesperson said: “The number of hospitalizations for Covid-19 varies significantly across the country and while the national volume of patients in the second wave has not yet surpassed the first, some hospitals in some areas of the country are actually treating more Covid patients than in the spring. “
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