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While the Covid-19 vaccination campaign could begin in France at the end of the year, some of the population is still reluctant. A non-irrational caution, according to epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.
The vaccination strategy is being organized, but the reluctance of a part of the French population remains. Moderna files marketing authorizations in Europe and the United States, while the Haute Autorité de santé publishes its recommendations in terms of vaccination. But 59% of French people say they have no intention of “getting vaccinated when possible,” according to an Ifop poll for Le JDD.
“It is not irrational to be cautious”, replies epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, interviewed by France 24. The one who is also director of the Global Health Institute of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva explains that an “effective vaccination campaign “, Above all,” would eliminate mortality and intensive care admission “.
What are the challenges of the next vaccination campaign in France?
Antoine Flahault: The challenge for France, for all of Europe and for the world, is to vaccinate people at a very high risk of mortality and serious complications from this disease, that is a segment of around 20% of the world population, as a priority. Since we do not benefit a priori from a widely abundant vaccine, we will have to have a strategy that will not be called “blocking” – that is, group immunity to stop the epidemic – but more a policy of protecting people at risk of complications and mortality. for a period that can last a few months.
How to explain that for the moment a large part of the French population does not wish to be vaccinated?
France is no exception. All countries are reluctant to vaccinate, this is a concern for most public health authorities. Regarding this reluctance, they can be understood for several reasons. The first two vaccines that are likely to be on the market (Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, ed) are messenger RNA, completely new vaccines in pharmacopoeia.
We are therefore in the utmost innovation, and it is not irrational to have some caution in the face of this and want to wait until the vaccine has been tried, not so much in terms of effectiveness – the evidence was there. for this, but rather in terms of risks. Vaccines can turn out to be different in millions of people in use than we have been shown in tests on tens of thousands of people.
Age must also be taken into consideration: people who are not at risk of serious complications or mortality from Covid-19 will certainly have a greater need on the risk-benefit ratio of these vaccines than those over 70, who will find relief, a big change in their life after vaccination.
What percentage of population vaccinations will need to be achieved for this campaign to be effective despite the reluctance?
It is less about the percentage of people vaccinated than the target. An effective campaign would eliminate mortality and ICU admission of the elderly, targeted as a priority for vaccination. Subsequently, in the world, we did not choose a policy of “blocking” the epidemic which would have consisted in vaccinating over 60% of the population that is fairly young. It is recommended, for the moment, to vaccinate only the vulnerable groups of the population against this disease and possibly health workers who are particularly exposed.
It is also possible – and seroprevalence studies could prove it – that a part of the population, especially young people, is now naturally immune to SARS-CoV-2 and that it cooperates with the party that would have vaccine immunity to limit further spread and spread. of Covid-19. The buildup of these two immunities could help curb the virus.
When will we see a return to normal or, in any case, a life similar to 2019?
This can be quick (in the fall of 2021 in case of extensive vaccination, according to epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, NDLR). If we are able to rapidly vaccinate the elderly and those at risk, with comorbidities, then we can radically change the prognosis of Covid-19 and make it a very mild respiratory disease. If the vaccination campaign allows, we will quickly get rid of the problem.
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