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SCIENCE – Restores clarity and a path to ending “uncertainty”. This is what Emmanuel Macron has scheduled to do this Tuesday, November 24 at 20:00 during a televised speech dedicated to the coronavirus, almost a month after the beginning of the imprisonment.
In recent days, the government has explained through confidences to various media that there will be no “deconfinement” from 1 December, but a gradual relaxation of the restrictive measures aimed at stemming the Covid-19 epidemic, probably in three phases.
Without Christmas, shops should be able to reopen, unlike bars, restaurants and sports halls. In any case, that is what the president should announce if we are to believe the multiple statements of the ministers.
A gradual opening, closely monitored, which means that the curfew and then the confinement had the desired effect on the curves of the Covid-19 epidemic. On the other hand, we must not believe that all this is behind us. Because a new wave can overwhelm us at any moment. To better understand where we are in this attempt to contain the coronavirus, The HuffPost offers you to take stock with several interactive maps and charts.
General curves of the epidemic in France
Several indicators are monitored by the government, researchers and health authorities to monitor the evolution of the coronavirus in France. The curves below, updated in real time thanks to data from the General Directorate of Health, allow us to see more clearly.
Below is a description of the main indicators monitored:
- Incidence rate: this is the number of cases detected per 100,000 inhabitants. It is very useful because it provides an inventory of the outbreak in near real time (a few days late for symptoms to appear, or even before they appear for contact cases). But it depends on the screening skills.
- Positivity rate: is the number of positive tests compared to the total number of tests performed. It allows you to “control” the incidence rate. If there are many cases in a territory (incidence rate), but this is only due to highly developed screening, the positivity rate will be low. Conversely, if it increases, it means that most of the people tested are positive, but above all that infected people who are not tested, who fall through the cracks, are potentially more numerous.
- Occupancy rate of resuscitation beds by Covid-19 patients: This is a scrutiny because it allows us to know if hospitals are able to manage the influx of patients. It is very useful because there is little risk of bias: it does not depend on screening and the occupations of the beds are well reported to the authorities. Its disadvantage: there is a significant delay between contamination and entry into the ICU, of about two to three weeks.
- Death in the hospital: Like resuscitations, it’s a fairly reliable indicator, but with a significant delay.
After more than three weeks of imprisonment, which in turn was preceded by a curfew in several metropolises, we can clearly see that a peak has been reached. And this, for all indicators. But the level is still quite high.
To go further, here are other curves, maps and graphs to better understand the evolution of the epidemic at the level of large cities and departments.
Map of incidence and positivity rate by department
These two indicators are very useful for monitoring the epidemic. Especially the incidence rate. Logical: it allows, if the screening is massive, fast and well performed, to see the impact of restrictive measures on the evolution of the epidemic almost in real time. Because in theory we get tested either after a few days of symptoms, or even earlier if we are in contact.
But on its own, this barometer can be misleading. The positivity rate helps to limit the bias. This is why we have chosen to create a map of France based on the rate of incidence and positivity. Each department is colored according to the evolution of these indicators. The first map (“trend” button) shows the evolution over time of the incidence rate and positivity. Clearly, to know if the situation is improving or worsening in each department.
Since these percentages depend on the increase in screening, we have chosen to highlight only the decreases and increases of the two rates for more than a week. The first map (“trend” button) shows the position of the indicators in relation to the alert thresholds developed by the government during the deconfinement.
The second (“global index” button) shows the status of a department in relation to the surveillance and alert thresholds developed by the government during the deconfinement last May. We see that the circulation of the virus is still very important.
For technical reasons the overseas territories are not visible, but are accessible in the search engine at the top left. This map is automatically updated as soon as Public Health France updates the data published online on data.gouv.fr (almost daily).
Curves of incidence and positivity rates by department
While the map above is useful for seeing the current situation and overall trend by department, it can also be useful to review developments in a specific department in more detail. It is precisely this type of development that is being scrutinized by the authorities to find out if the epidemic is calming down according to the measures, as we have recently made clear by taking the example of Marseille and the Bouches-du-Rhône.
We have therefore developed a graph that allows you to compare the evolution of the incidence rate and positivity over time, by department. We see an inflection in different wards that could be analyzed as a first indication of the effect of the curfew, then of the confinement.
But we must be careful not to jump to conclusions. In September, several declines were observed in Gironde, Bouches-du-Rhône or Paris before the epidemic began again with even greater force.
As to why, this is the great mystery. The onset of cold has probably given new life to the coronavirus. At the same time, the laboratories were also overwhelmed, which could lead to biased figures, as they are not representative of the real situation.
This therefore calls for caution in reading this recent data. Any “spike” or decline must last at least a week or two to be sure that the situation is moving in the right direction. And most importantly, it must be correlated with other elements.
The evolution in 22 major cities of the incidence
Still on these rapid but not reliable enough indicators, the big cities are closely scrutinized, in particular the 22 metropolises represented below, where, due to the density of the population, the risk of coronavirus transmission is high.
Below is the evolution of this rate in the 22 main French cities since 26 September (limit of available data). The more the box is red, the greater the incidence and therefore the more positive cases of Covid-19.
On this graph it is also possible to monitor the evolution of the incidence rate among people over the age of 65, according to an indicator particularly monitored by the government. With good reason: We know that age is the main risk factor with coronavirus.
To go further or look in more detail at the evolution of one of the 22 French metropolises monitored by Public Health France, you can use the graph below by typing the name of a large city.
Resuscitation map by department
One of the most stable indicators is the number of people entering intensive care. It is also what the government is monitoring closely, because the occupancy rate of these beds is fundamental: saturation must be avoided which, in addition to the deaths caused by Covid-19, would have cascading consequences on the rest. of the health system.
Together with the incidence rate (in general and among the elderly), it is the occupancy rate of the beds that implies the passage of a ward in the alert threshold. Unfortunately, the departmental data on which the government is based is not currently available. It is therefore impossible for The HuffPost monitor this indicator locally. We have therefore chosen to indicate in the map below the trend in terms of the number of beds in intensive care occupied by Covid-19 patients.
Resuscitation curves and hospitalizations by ward
The main disadvantage of this indicator is that there is a large delay. “For severe cases, it has been estimated that it takes about two weeks between infection and ICU admission. So the impact of a binding measure will only be visible 14 days later, ”explains the HuffPost Samuel Alizon, Director of Research at CNRS, specialist in infectious disease modeling.
In order to be able to accurately follow this evolution, here is a graph showing the number of people hospitalized or in intensive care for coronavirus, in each ward.
We see here that a decline is emerging two to three weeks after the drop in the incidence rate, especially in the most affected wards.
Covid-19 related hospital deaths by department
Finally, the last indicator is the most tragic: the evolution of the number of deaths caused by the coronavirus. Only deaths registered in the hospital are listed here. More general data (excess mortality from INSEE, feedback from nursing homes or electronic certifications, etc.) are reported more sporadically.
This graph therefore does not allow us to say the total number of deaths in France in an instant T, but rather, like the others, to see the evolution of the epidemic. As for resuscitations, there is a delay of about two to three weeks between the current evolution of the epidemic and the impact on the death curve.
Obviously what we want is that all these curves are directed downwards, and this in a sustainable way. We can see that deaths, the most lagging indicator, are also slowly starting to decline. The epidemic is therefore heading in the right direction, but it is still too early to claim victory, because with a virus that continues to circulate in the area, it doesn’t take much for contamination to start growing again, as we could. see him at the beginning of the school year.
See also on The HuffPost: Vaccines 90% effective, what it means … and above all not to say it
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