Haute-Loire in the face of Covid-19: from a spared territory to the epicenter of the crisis

“The epicenter of this second epidemic wave in France”: this is how the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes Regional Health Agency (ARS) describes, in its epidemiological update of 5 November 2020, this region, compared with Covid- 19 from then to the end of February, to which the Haute-Loire belongs.

A ward that, in the summer of 2020, had emerged from the first wave of the pandemic with less than twenty deaths registered in its hospitals; facilities that had not admitted more than seven patients in intensive care at the same time out of a maximum of 39 treated. Nothing to do, near or far, with the current health situation.

Here is the number of people hospitalized due to Covid-19:

At the end of April, at the height of the crisis, the ward accounted for 1.3% of admissions in the region and 0.2% of intensive care. As of November 12, which could be a peak in the wave of this fall, it was 3.5% and 2.25%. This difference is significant when we know that the department is located in the most affected area of ​​France.

A second wave 523% higher than the first

According to data from Public Health France analyzed by Guillaume Rozier, a young engineer who became a “data scientist” with the aim of following as closely (and as clearly as possible) the evolution of the pandemic in France, “la the second wave is 523% higher than the first “in Haute-Loire, in terms of hospitalizations, against, for example, + 97% for the Loire.

Here is the evolution of the number of patients admitted to intensive care:

The ARS notes that this acceleration of the pandemic affects people at risk the most. Lower “where a comorbidity rate of 69% was observed in the first wave and in the summer, 88% of patients reported since October 8 have comorbidities (obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes … Editor’s note) increasing the risk of severity of Covid-19. “

Another indicator is the breakdown by age group: “68% of patients reported since 5 October are over 65 years old, compared to 58% previously. “

At the end of July 2020, the Haute-Loire had only one cluster (first in relation to a family event, then in the airy center of Landos). From mid-June to mid-October, only two (or even one) patients were hospitalized. No new patients were treated between June 13 and August 21.

The situation on the eve of the announcement of the curfew

At the beginning of the school year, the regional health agency speaks of an “intense circulation” of the virus in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, mainly between the ages of 20-40. It will not take long for the phenomenon, “observed in young adults starting this summer”, to reach “the higher age groups”.

Here is the incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 population):

From the end of August to the end of October, there were as many reports of Covid-19 in social and medico-social institutions (including nursing homes) as there were during the first wave, during which the quarantine was sent.

Discomfort of nursing homes in Haute-Loire: a nurse and a nursing assistant testify to their daily life with the sick

According to the latest data, more than 700 coronavirus cases have been confirmed among residents (from 30 to the end of August), more than 400 among staff (from 23).

Of the 27 clusters, 15 are in nursing homes

Of the 27 clusters in Haute-Loire in November (where the average is 35 cases), fifteen are in nursing homes and four in socio-medical institutions for the disabled.

Here is the number of Covid-19 patients who died in hospital:

As of 12 November, 46 deaths have been recorded in the department within social and socio-medical structures. They are added to the 75 people with Covid-19 who lost their lives in one of the department’s hospitals. According to INSEE, in Haute-Loire, the total number of deaths between 1 September and 2 November increased by 29.5% between 2019 and 2020. Data still provisional.

Nora Gutting