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With the Liverpool side ravaged by injuries, there are certainly games they would rather play than host leaders Leicester City.
The Foxes are on fire this season, having won all four league games played outside King Power Stadium. They didn’t achieve this just by playing against weaker teams, as they took three points at Manchester City and Arsenal.
This is a significant turnaround in their form since the end of 2019/20. Brendan Rodgers ‘side beat Newcastle at St James’ Park on New Year’s Day, but then set the second worst away record in the Premier League for the remainder of the season, drawing three and losing five of eight games.
And their recovery on the street was aided by officials and the clumsy opposition defense. Leicester have scored six away penalties this season, which is a third of the total for the entire division, with no other team having scored more than one. You have to go back in January 2019 and through 31 away games to find Liverpool’s last six league penalties that weren’t at Anfield.
So if the Reds defend intelligently in their box – and perhaps keep their arms behind their backs – then they can dampen Leicester’s attack threat. Rodgers’ team has the fourth best goal difference expected in the top flight ever, but excludes penalties and therefore has the sixth worst. It is a huge part of their arsenal.
They haven’t scored goals from counter-attacks or set pieces this season either (according to WhoScored), and the Reds can look to the latter as a way to hurt them in the opposite direction.
The Foxes have conceded the most goals in games played on the set in 2020/21 and represent all three goals they have left away from home. This is traditionally a strong area for Liverpool, although their threat has significantly diminished since Virgil van Dijk’s absence, of course.
Leicester also appear weak for crosses – Burnley, Manchester City and West Ham all scored against them that way – but with Trent Alexander-Arnold injured and Andy Robertson currently in doubt, Liverpool may have to find a different way to beat them. .
Enter Thiago Alcantara. He has yet to appear at Anfield for his new club and hasn’t been seen since Richarlison’s horrendous challenge against him in the Merseyside derby. His incisive death could prove vital in taking down what is likely to be a deep Leicester backline.
It is important to remember that it is unlikely to replace the direct assist potential that the Reds’ first choice full backs would normally provide. He has scored 13 goals in his last four seasons in the Bundesliga (according to WhoScored), as many as those created by Alexander-Arnold in 2019/20 alone.
But Thiago is a master at playing the pass that forces you to open a defense and allows a teammate to create a great opportunity to score a goal. His ball to Sadio Mané in injury time at Goodison Park was a fabulous example of this, although the more marginal offside then denied Jordan Henderson a derby winner.
Statsbomb has a stat that explains this, as their blow-creating actions look beyond the passing that creates a chance. Thiago created 85 chances directly in the previous three seasons (according to FBRef), but he made 193 shots creating actions.
In other words, there were over 100 important creative actions he took that were not reflected in more traditional statistics.
So how do Liverpool make the most of it on Sunday? West Ham have had their biggest win against Leicester so far this season, but Klopp won’t be emulating David Moyes’ 5-4-1 anytime soon.
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Aston Villa also inflicted defeat on the Foxes, and their 4-2-3-1 is perfect for both Klopp and Thiago. Dean Smith’s side limited Leicester to just six shots in their box, and it was the only game this season where the Foxes failed to have a clear chance.
Liverpool’s new number six could play in the double pivot at the base of the midfield (along with anyone else left standing) and could pull the strings from there for the top four players to wreak havoc in and around the penalty area.
The Spaniard could easily prove to be the key to unlocking the leaders’ defense on her debut at Anfield.
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