The asteroid Apophis changes trajectory: will it hit the Earth in 2068?

The asteroid Apophis was supposed to fly close to Earth in 2068, but not hit. But its trajectory has changed. And suddenly the asteroid impact is possible.

To the Asteroids (99942) Apophis The name says it all. The boulder of about 370 meters takes its name from God of chaos and darkness in Egyptian mythology – and there is a reason for this: after its discovery in June 2004, it was feared for a short time that the Asteroid Apophis it could wreak havoc on earth. The calculations had shown that the Asteroid with a 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth in 2029.

The orbit of the asteroid Apophis has changed: is the impact of an asteroid threatening in 2068?

After further calculations, the astronomers were able to do so Collision of the asteroid with the earth in the year 2029, a little later an impact on the earth in the year 2036 or 2068 was also ruled out. But now the researchers around the astronomer Dave Tholen of the University of Hawaii have spoken Apophis asteroids Discovered in 2004. The team has Apophis observed again for three nights in January and one night in March 2020 and discovered something surprising: the Asteroid it is no longer exactly where you were expected to find it.

“Our observations show that the Asteroid has moved away from its purely gravitational orbit, “Tholen explains in a University of Hawaii communication. The orbit moves about 170 meters per year from Asteroid Apophis according to the researchers. “This is enough to keep the impact scenario for 2068 in play,” continues Tholen.

Asteroid Apophis with change of orbit: the fault lies with the heat of the sun

Behind the Change of orbit of the asteroid is the so-called “Jarkowski effect”: the Asteroid and from Sun irradiated unevenly and then heated unevenly. It gives this warmth Asteroid Apophis again ans space off – and is therefore slightly accelerated. In Apophis, this effect is apparently 170 meters per year and this could be decisive for achieving one in 2068 Impact of an asteroid must fear.

Asteroid Apophis it will arrive very close to earth in a few years: April 13, 2029 arrives Apophis closer to the earth’s surface than geostationary satellites, which are located at an altitude of about 36,000 kilometers. The route will be up to approximately 31,000 kilometers Asteroid Apophis approach the earth and have a speed of about 25,000 kilometers per hour. It can therefore be seen with the naked eye, but it poses no danger to them land or satellites. “We have known for a long time that an impact on Earth in 2029 is not possible,” says Tholen, who reassured the Apophis asteroids closely observed since 2004.

How does the “Jarkowski effect” affect asteroids like Apophis?

Further observations are currently underway to find out more precisely how the “Jarkowski Effect” on the Apophis asteroids and influences its orbit. Regardless, he also looked at the US space agency NASA this effect is currently with the “Osiris-Rex” space probe, which the Asteroiden Bennu visited and collected rock samples there.

According to calculations, Bennu is moved 284 meters in the direction of the sun per year. “Osiris-Rex” should show how accurate the model is for calculating the “Jarkoswki effect” and help refine it further in order to obtain the Trajectory of an asteroid to be able to predict in the future even more precisely. The results could also be used in Apophis asteroids They are used.

Asteroid Apophis: what happens when it approaches Earth in 2029?

Further observations of the Asteroids through the NEOWISE telescope of NASA are already planned and the first plans have already been made to observe the asteroid as it approaches Earth in April 2029: “We will Asteroids Observe with optical telescopes and radar, “NASA scientist Marina Brozovic said some time ago. Asteroidthat comes very close to the earth is an opportunity that astronomers absolutely want to seize.

According to the calculations made by the Tholen team, the research should Apophis asteroids at his Flyby 2029 now take a closer look. Because even the overflight is not entirely lacking: “We know that the close encounter with the earth sets the stage Asteroid Apophis it will change, “said astronomer Davide Farnocchia of the Center for the Study of Near Earth Objects (CNEOS) some time ago.

The asteroid Apophis can cause considerable damage on Earth

In any case, one thing is certain: there should be a risk of impact by 2068 Apophis asteroids researchers know relatively early on. So it will come down to how to protect yourself from an asteroid. Because one thing is certain: Apophis it is so great that he is one Impact on the earth would cause considerable damage.

Experts believe that a Asteroid The size of Apophis releases approximately 900 megatons of energy on impact, 18 times the largest human-made nuclear explosion. The impact it would have depends heavily on where and at what angle it hits the celestial body. One “Global killer” yet Asteroid, responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, is expected to have significantly greater impact energy. (Tanja Banner)