A third of the deceased would die in the following weeks

This is the conclusion of a demographic study published by HEC Montréal

Tristan Péloquin
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About one-third of Quebec citizens attributed the cause of death to COVID-19 in the first wave would most likely die of other causes in the following weeks, suggests a demographic study recently published by two HEC Montreal researchers.

The analysis, which is based on very accurate death data, including age, sex, as well as place of residence and death of the deceased, must be interpreted with caution, notes Pierre-Carl Michaud, co-author of the study and holder of the research chair on intergenerational economic issues.

Even though a number of the deceased were actually at the end of their lives, Quebec still experienced a significant excess of mortality between March and June, accounting for around 4,300 more deaths than would normally be expected for this period.

However, the data shows that there were 570 fewer cancer-related deaths than normal and 280 fewer deaths attributed to heart disease.

Excess mortality

Although few autopsies were performed and other causes of death were underlying, attributing these deaths to COVID-19 “corresponds to the rules decreed by the WHO,” Michaud points out. These specify that deaths linked to the COVID-19 pandemic must “be counted regardless of the pre-existing conditions that are suspected to have triggered a severe course of COVID-19”.

The excess mortality observed by the study is, not surprisingly, particularly marked in the CHSLDs of Quebec, where it was 2.5 times higher than normal between March and June. By comparison, British Columbia, a far less pandemic-affected province than Quebec, experienced an increase in mortality of about 60% at its senior institutions over the same period.

Interestingly, the data show that excess mortality in British Columbia facilities arose at the start of the pandemic, but that it rapidly diminished. “In our view, these are the measures that British Columbia put in place very quickly, where the government quickly banned the movement of staff between factories and imposed very strict rules, which explains why they fared better. », Mister Michaud esteems. This hypothesis should still be the subject of further scientific study, he admits.