Human behavior is fundamental in both pandemic and computer-related modeling

How modelers represent interactions between human-created risks is critical to building effective models, the report says. Although pandemics originate from pathogens, the challenge is how the models can illustrate a range of findings based on individual and social reactions that can influence the spread of disease or cyber threats.

The report also found that a lack of data can impede progress for both types of modelers. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been fewer than 12 major global pandemics, and while there have been thousands of cyber incidents since the advent of the internet, there have been very few significant systemic incidents. This means there isn’t a large amount of data to gauge the potential impact of such events, the report says.

“It is clear that lessons can be learned and applied to cyber risk modeling by understanding how pandemic models have evolved,” said Oli Brew, CyberCube’s customer success manager. “As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, even though there are differences between computers and human viruses, parallels are emerging in data modeling, methodologies and challenges. There is real value in learning from interdisciplinary teams on how to balance the needs for accuracy and precision in model development to meet market needs. At a minimum, the need for a creative but reality-based imagination to represent forward-looking risks is paramount. “

“In both cyber risk and pandemics, the risk of accumulation needs to be considered,” said Dr. Hjalmar Böhm, Senior Actuary of Epidemic Risk Solutions, a dedicated epidemic risk to Munich Re. “For example, a pandemic is a key consideration for life insurers and a high mortality event could create a significant economic loss. A robust approach to controlling accumulation risk exposure must be the foundation for any business model to control epidemic insurance. “

“There are parallels with modeling the global spread of a disease and how computer systems are connected – both are network problems,” said Nita Madhav, CEO of pandemic modeling company Metabiota. “The impact of mitigation risk and timely action can potentially make a difference. Also, you can be asymptomatic with COVID-19; likewise, you may not know if a cyber intruder has already infiltrated your network. “