[ad_1]
White and White / Shutterstock
It was not yet known what role super speakers actually play in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. An American study now shows that superspreader events can even be the cause of pandemics.
Researchers evaluated 60 scientifically documented superspreader events. On average, one person who was infected with the virus infected 20 other people.
According to scientists’ calculations, limiting meetings to ten or fewer people can significantly reduce the number of super broadcast events.
They attract a lot of attention every time: superspreader events, that is, events in which a person infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects many more people. At the very beginning of the pandemic, he was the follower of a religious sect that infected countless other participants in a religious service in South Korea. Later reports emerged that entire choirs had been contaminated by a single singer, a conference in Boston was the super broadcast event, or a Buddhist priest in China had been infected with an entire bus.
What a superspreader role But in reality it has so far been largely unknown to play with the spread of the novel coronavirus. A new study by Felix Wong and James Collins of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now suggests that superscatter events have a much stronger impact on the spread of the virus than previously thought and could even be pandemic factors.
For the research published in the journal “PNAS”, scientists evaluated 60 superspreader events, defined as events in which one person infects more than six others. They identified 45 superspreader events from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and 15 additional events from the 2003 SARS outbreak, all documented in journal articles.
Although many people were infected during the events, different numbers of people were infected – from just six in a family reunion in Singapore to 187 in an apartment complex in Hong Kong – most of these events hit between 10 and 10. and the 55 people. On average, someone infected with the virus infected 20 other people, Wong and Collins report. Settings range from choir rehearsals to ski resorts, church services, and construction sites.
These are some of the most prevalent events examined: the right column shows the number of infected people.
PNAS / Felix Wong / James Collins
The scientists then compared the statistical level of a super-diffuser event, based on epidemiological experience, and the frequency with which it actually occurred.
For example, we know that one infected person infects an average of three other people with the corona virus. The more people infect a superspreader, the less likely it is. In fact, the analysis shows that coronavirus superspreader events occur significantly more frequently than statistically predicted.
“These really big super-spread events with between ten and 100 infected people are much more common than expected,” he said. Felix Wong says. However, this is dangerous: these events can regularly become drivers of the pandemic if they are not effectively prevented.
The ten person limit prevents superspreader events
The researchers then developed a mathematical model based on their findings that is specific to the transmission of Covid-19. This, in turn, allowed them to determine the best way to prevent super broadcast events. Consequently, limiting meetings to ten or fewer people can significantly reduce the number of super-broadcast events and the overall number of infections.
“This gives us an idea of how we can manage the ongoing pandemic by identifying strategies that target super spreaders,” said Wong. “One way to do this would be to prevent someone from regrouping in a large meeting with more than ten people.”
Super diffusion events are arguably more important than most researchers initially thought, adds James Collins. “If we can keep the superspreader events in check, we have a much better chance of keeping this pandemic under control.”
read also
New strategy against the coronavirus: the search for the super spreader
Source link
