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It was not yet known what role super speakers actually play in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. A US study now shows that super-diffusion events can even cause pandemics.
Researchers evaluated 60 scientifically documented superspreader events. On average, one person infected with the virus infected 20 other people.
According to scientists’ calculations, limiting meetings to ten people or less can significantly reduce super-broadcast events.
They attract a lot of attention every time: Superspreader events, that is, events in which a person infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects many more people. At the very beginning of the pandemic, it was the follower of a religious sect that infected numerous other visitors to a religious service in South Korea. became a super-broadcast event or a Buddhist priest in China that infected an entire bus.
The role that super spreaders actually play in spreading the new type of coronavirus has remained largely unknown until now. A new study by Felix Wong and James Collins of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now suggests that super-spread events appear to have a much stronger impact on the spread of the virus than previously thought and could even be pandemic factors.
For the study published in the journal “PNAS”, the scientists evaluated 60 superspreader events, defined as events in which one person infects more than six others. They identified 45 superspreader events from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and 15 additional events from the 2003 SARS outbreak, all documented in journal articles.
Although the number of people infected during the events varied greatly – from just six at a family reunion in Singapore to 187 in an apartment complex in Hong Kong – between ten and 55 people were infected in most of these events. . On average, someone infected with the virus infected 20 other people, Wong and Collins report. The settings range from choir rehearsals to ski resorts to church services and construction sites.
These are some of the super spread events examined: the right column shows the number of those who have been infected.
PNAS / Felix Wong / James Collins
The scientists then statistically compared the likelihood of a superspreader event – based on experience in epidemiology – and the frequency with which it actually occurred.
So you know that one infected person infects on average three other people with the corona virus. The more people a superspreader infects, the less likely this event is. In fact, the analysis shows that coronavirus superspreader events occur far more often than would statistically be expected.
“These really big super-spread events with between ten and 100 infected people are much more common than we expected,” says Felix Wong. But this is dangerous: because these events can regularly become pandemic drivers if they are not effectively prevented.
The limitation to ten people prevents super broadcast events
The researchers then developed a specific mathematical model for Covid-19 transmission based on their findings. With this they could in turn determine the best way to prevent super-shedding events. Consequently, limiting meetings to ten people or fewer can significantly reduce overshooting events and also the total number of infections.
“This gives us a clue as to how we could control the ongoing pandemic by identifying strategies aimed at super spreaders,” says Wong. “For example, one possibility would be to prevent someone from interacting with more than ten people at a large gathering.”
Super diffusion events are arguably more important than most researchers initially realized, adds James Collins. “If we can keep the events of the superspreader under control, we have a much better chance of keeping this pandemic under control.”
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