[ad_1]
After crossing the peak of Covid-19 mortality in the pandemic, 15 of the federation’s 27 units have already recorded a closer than expected death toll. In these states, the total number of deaths in September was no more than 10% higher than that recorded in the same month last year.
The retraction indication, in this case, considers all the deaths registered in the country, not just those diagnosed with Covid-19. And it comes with a warning sign, with some states reporting more cases of the disease and fear in Brazil of a repeat of the second European wave.
The less brutal but still prevalent pandemic scenario is in the numbers of the Portal for the transparency of the civil register. As the data takes time to consolidate, the report excluded October from the analysis.
“The interpretation of the mortality data requires great attention, but in this pandemic we have seen very high numbers, which can only be explained by Covid-19,” says Maria Amélia Veras, professor at the Santa Casa de São Paulo School of Medicine. “But in fact, now, in general, there has been a decrease in mortality from Covid-19.”
The registry offices have not yet completed the Covid-19 registrations and the numbers are even lower than the government figures. But from January to September they had already recorded 14% more deaths from all causes compared to the same period in 2019, or 122 thousand more.
“This clearly says that we have not been able to fight the pandemic,” says health care practitioner Roberto Medronho, of the UFRJ.
REGIONAL SCENARIOS – Among the states in which the mortality level has returned to normal there are not Rio and Sao Paulo, still with more than 12% of the level recorded in 2019.
The fall was driven by the Northeast and the North, especially in those states that suffered most from Covid-19 in the middle of May.
The region where mortality is far from returning to normal is the Goiás-Tocantins-Distrito Federal triangle, where there were still about 40% more deaths a month ago than the previous year.
Medronho, however, thinks that, in states with the worst infrastructure, notification takes longer and the September figures may still be slightly underestimated.
Some epidemiologists now feel more comfortable saying that in the larger states where the surplus of mortality has receded, the “first wave” has passed, although the reasons are not so clear.
“One might think that the people most at risk of death were hit in the first wave, after that there was more attention from these people, greater adherence to social distance and the use of masks. It must have weighed too. the learning curve of teams that care for patients with Covid-19. And, as the virus spreads, it could also have some attenuation of this virulence, “says Veras.
An anomalous state is Rio Grande do Sul, which, while recording some cases of Covid-19, has not had a marked surplus of deaths.
“The number of deaths from influenza has decreased this time of year, but it has been replaced by Covid-19,” explains Paulo Lotufo, epidemiologist at the USP.
For him the challenge now is to explain to the public that the problem is not over, and the risk of the second wave is real: “If there is a place where the government has denied the existence of Covid-19, imagine now that the first wave is passing. “.
BEDS FOR THE DISABLED – While some states have not yet seen the end of the first wave of Covid-19, others are already worried about the next, seeing Europe shrink under the second wave from afar.
With big cities already dismantling field hospitals and relocating ICU beds, the fear is that this facility will need to be reassembled soon if the outbreak is to rebound. According to the secretaries of the National Health Council, 51% of the more than 15,000 intensive care beds authorized by the Ministry of Health since April are expired or disabled.
For Gonzalo Vecina Neto, a USP sanitarist, this sudden deactivation is a concern, because before the pandemic, SUS already had a shortage of beds.
“We should have 1 to 3 beds per 10,000 inhabitants. We entered the pandemic with 0.7. With the reinforcement we are between 1 and 3 in a large part of the country, even if in some points still below. Now let’s go back to the previous situation. “, He explains.
According to Daniel Villela, a researcher at the Fiocruz Covid-19 Observatory, October was the first month in which all states had an ICU employment rate for Covid-19 below 80%.
“Occupancy of 80 per 100 beds is a small safety margin,” he says.
For Vecina, the lack of Covid-19 testing and protective equipment also needs to be addressed.
The Ministry of Health said 7.9 million RT-PCR tests had been distributed by October 24 and more than 4.8 million had been performed, but did not say how many were in stock at the time. “The folder distributes tests based on state storage capacity,” he said in a statement.
Ana Maria Malik, doctor and coordinator of FGV Saúde, says that the country has more clinical and administrative experience to deal with a second crisis, but says that the logistics are worried: “We have no right to be taken by surprise again.”
[ad_2]
Source link
