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The 2020 U.S. presidential election led to significant action in crypto-based predictive markets.
Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin took to Twitter during the vote count to praise the success of crypto-based prediction platforms during election season, stating:
“Regardless of who wins from here, this time around I think the forecasting markets have proven more accurate than the polls / models.”
Traditional polls have shown Biden an eight-point lead since early November. But the tokens of the presidential future have swung wildly in response to events.
Election markets on the leading cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX saw wild volatility over the last day, with TRUMP futures going from $ 0.38 to $ 0.80 as votes started counting, before steadily collapsing with the extension of Biden’s electoral college advantage.
TRUMP tokens, which can be redeemed for $ 1 each upon safe re-election by the incumbent, are now trading for less than $ 0.09 on FTX.
Traditional centralized bookmakers also saw large fluctuations on election day, with Trump spending much of the day as a favorite until Arizona was called in for Biden.
About $ 16 million worth of TRUMP tokens were traded on FTX yesterday, while BIDEN tokens pushed nearly $ 6 million. FTX’s TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE tokens also generated an additional $ 10 million in combined volume.
Ethereum-based decentralized prediction platform Augur also saw significant action, reporting $ 8.6 million in total election volume and $ 4.75 million in open interest. On November 4th, the project published:
“This year’s electoral markets surpassed previous Augur v1 OI and House Market trading volume records of 2018 ($ 2.5 million and $ 6 million). Thanks to everyone who used or tried Augur for the first time, we hope you will stay! “
Ethereum influencer Anthony Sassano noted the opportunity the election offered decentralized prediction platforms to attract users, stating:
“It looks like forecasting markets finally found their way because there was a market where people could bet on what they really cared about.”
The decentralized forecasting platform based on Matic Polymarket also recorded significant trades, posting a new record volume of over $ 10 million. Polymarket allows traders to speculate on new events as if The Associated Press will post a tweet calling the election winner first November 6.
According to CoinGecko, Augur and Balancer’s Catnip Exchange YTRUMP and NTRUMP tokens have generated about $ 1.3 million in speculative stock in the past 24 hours.
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