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Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with stocks rising and the US dollar falling, all while trading above $ 16,000 again. What are the prospects for price action?
Cointelegraph examines the factors that could affect how Bitcoin will move in the coming days.
Stocks close to historic highs as the US dollar sinks
The macroeconomic environment this week looks somewhat different from the last: stocks are gaining, backed by a major Asian trade deal, while the US dollar is losing ground.
According to the latest data from November 16, the US dollar currency index (DXY) has fallen in the past week to 92.58 from post-election highs of 93.2. Traditionally, Bitcoin has been moving inversely to DXY, and although this relationship has become less pronounced recently, heavy moves in either direction can still impact BTC / USD.
Asian equities meanwhile led the way on Monday, with 15 nations signing the long-awaited Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), set to reduce trade rates by up to 92% between them.
The mood has spread to European and US futures, with markets now on track to hit record highs across the board. The situation is strangely familiar: After the crash and subsequent rebound earlier this year, markets are again buoyant despite tightening restrictions on coronavirus around the world.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, artificial meddling by central banks remains a major cause of concerns about the true health of equities.
Analyzing the status quo, macro investor Dan Tapiero argued that the ongoing economic policy would still help safe havens, including Bitcoin.
“Expect more liquidity injections from central banks. Economic activity in the short term will slow down again with the return of caution, ”he tweeted.
“No point of view on covid, just on people’s response to it. Mkts will be well supported with #GOLD and #Bitcoin which will continue to benefit. “
Bitcoin at its third highest weekly close
Bitcoin’s price action over the weekend allowed it to start its third best week in history after sealing a weekly close above the seminal area of $ 15,890.
For the weekly chart, this means that Bitcoin beat its previous week’s performance to see its third highest weekly close on record Sunday.
Only two other weekly closings were higher, but analysts continue to debate whether the market will attempt to revisit them.
“The market in general is at the crossroads of direction,” the Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe summed up late Sunday, when BTC / USD settled at around $ 15,850.
“Going down below $ 15,500 and I assume we will see a correction on all markets with $ BTC down to $ 13,000 or less.”
Previously, trader Tone Vays he said he would aim for a maximum of around $ 17,000 or $ 18,000.
“I don’t think this current push will take us to new all-time highs,” he predicted in video analysis earlier in the week.
“I believe a maximum will come at the end of November or in the second half of November; it could drag on until the beginning of December “.
Institutions don’t sell
Eventually, $ 16,000 returned, with posting levels around $ 16,250 prior to the opening of Wall St.
Away from retail, institutional investors remain remarkably long and BTC according to statisticians Willy Woo, capital inflows prove this.
“Weekend trading setup: shake off some bearish technicalities (4h RSI div, 8h TD9),” he told Twitter followers Saturday.
“The fundamentals of the short and medium term chain are bullish, more coins collected from exchanges, more users coming in. Buy the fall scenario.”
Woo was referring to the decreasing number of coins held on trade order books, a phenomenon that has marked recent price gains from $ 11,000 onwards. Rather than speculating, investors are putting the coins on deposit elsewhere, indicating a desire to hold them for the long term.
Fundamentals are trending higher
Signs of bullish change already permeate the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network despite mounting warnings of falling prices.
Estimates from monitoring resource BTC.com on Monday show that Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is now set to increase by around 4% in the next few hours. The latest automated readjustment for difficulty, estimates previously predicted a drop of around 6%, but later reversed direction.
The surge in competition among miners follows a steep drop in difficulties two weeks ago, which at 16% was Bitcoin’s biggest drop since 2011.
By zooming out, analysts wanted to note that difficulty is arguably the most important technical feature of Bitcoin. Long-term time adjustments, combined with subsidy halving per block every four years, have consistently protected the network completely independently from outside aid.
“The difficulty adjustment ensures that only a minimal amount of flow can be placed on the market each day. What this means for the price is attractive because it helps to calm the impulse to anticipate future halving events “, Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, wrote in a now-popular Twitter thread posted last week.
The data also shows that the hash rate, an estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, is starting to rise again after its decline.
How much extreme greed is possible?
Things are not going well to avoid a drop in Bitcoin prices, a popular indicator of investor sentiment meanwhile warns Monday.
The latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index readings suggest a correction is almost guaranteed for BTC / USD.
Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to gauge the mood among BTC investors and, with a score of 90/100, is firmly in the “extreme greed” zone.
For context, it was only at the height of last year’s bull run that the Index broke its current highs. As reported by Cointelegraph, however, analysts argue that 2020 has produced much more “organic” and, therefore, sustainable growth for the price of Bitcoin.
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