2018 was a horrible year for cryptocurrencies. The bear market recorded a fall of 80% for BTC and over 90% for most of the altcoins.
With this in mind, today we ask, what can we expect for 2019? More than the same or a market recovery?
Here I present my first 5 predictions for next year.
5 Crypto forecasts for 2019
1. The BTC bear market is over, with no new highs and no new lows
I think the bear market fund has already happened or we are very close.
Bitcoin has fallen about 84% (depending on the exchange you control) from its maximum set in December 2017. If you compare the bear market in 2013/14, we are extremely close to the same rate of decline over the indicated time period.
The price is also rebounded by the weekly moving average of 200. If we compare the previous bear markets, this drop and the number of days we have been in correction, we can see that we are approaching the expected average number of days in correction.
This can be seen more easily if we trace an average trend line on the number of days in correction:
As the market matures, it is reasonable to expect that the price will move more slowly with the growth of the market. As you can see, the recent BTC minimum puts us exactly on the expected trend for the number of days in correction.
The market sentiment has also become ultra-bearish. In July, when we held the $ 6,000 support line, most traders and owners demanded new historical highs by the end of the year, or at least an end to the bull market and a push of over $ 10,000.
Fast forward to today and that picture has been completely upside down. The bears who were late for the party now ask for prices below $ 1,000. This is the psychology of the market in action and tells me that we are much closer to the end now.
That said, I do not expect a recovery in the bullish BTC market, plus a slow sideways rotation for much of 2019. We can use the same bear market data to predict the number of days up to a new BTC maximum:
According to this forecast, we should not expect any new highs and a recovery in the bull market until the start of 2021.
This is not necessarily a bad thing if you consider my second prediction.
2. Some Altcoins reach and exceed their previous historical highs (in BTC)
At the dawn of cryptography, the Bitcoin domain was over 90%, with no other currencies adding new use cases.
With the market evolving, several currencies have been created with specific use cases, aimed at tokenization of resources, privacy and security, to name a few.
This is a sign that the market is maturing. It makes no sense that a currency dominates the entire market, just as it makes no sense that Microsoft is the only technology available.
There will be more coins covering every sector of the market where there is a real business case.
That said, 2017/18 has introduced many ICO tokens and scams. As suggested by one of my previous articles, I think these coins will struggle to deliver something soon, and the price is unlikely to resume for some teams.
The market will now return to real projects that comply with the new regulatory rules. Non-ICO projects, fair-launch, will do well in this environment.
Ubiq it's my number 1 choice for 2019.
Drowned by the money spent by ICOs in flashy marketing with little substance in 2017/18, Ubiq has worked hard changing its hashing algorithm from Ethash to Ubqhash to protect its users from the growing threat of 51% of attacks, making key improvements to # 39; ecosystem infrastructure and the creation of Ubiq as the main competitor for the Enterprise Stable platform that companies are slowly adopting now.
The UBQ / BTC chart seems to have hit the bottom now, forming a gap between 6,000 and 8,000 Satoshi price levels:
These price decreases are set relative to the MACD indicator, making lower lows in the daily time period. This is usually another indicator of the price that is ready to make a higher move.
The first obstacle to be overcome is the daily moving average of 200 to 9,500 sat, followed by several resistance lines. My final price target is above the previous historical maximum at around 97,000 sats, as I expect Ubiq to outperform the market in 2019.
3. Regulators are targeting some ICOs of big names, investors who repay
As I suggested in my Article "Iocal Apocalypse", regulators are recovering the large number of ICO projects launched in recent times. The SEC warned participants who run ICO in the past and are now threatening to relax in many of them.
Until they make a great example, it is unlikely that this activity will stop.
Recently, celebrities DJ Khalid and Floyd Mayweather Jr. have been fined by the SEC for not disclosing ICO token promotion payments. High-profile celebrities are an easy goal to give an example and you can expect to see some big ICOs responsible for repaying investors.
As suggested by my previous article, some good choices to survive the ICO apocalypse are Bitcoin, Ravencoin, Ethereum Classic and Ubiq, since none of these originated from an ICO and all were launched quite well through Proof-of- Work.
4. Ethereum becomes proof of its value
Vitalik Buterin did not hide from not being a fan of the job test.
Even if they do not agree with a pure Proof of Stake model, it seems fairly obvious that Ethereum will implement it as soon as humanly possible. For January 16, the hard fork of Constantinople to Ethereum has been scheduled, which will introduce a reduction in the block premium for miners, who already feel squeeze from the bear market. [Notadelredattore:l'aggiornamentodiCostantinopolièstato[Editor'snote:TheConstantinopleupdatehasbeen[Notadelredattore:l'aggiornamentodiCostantinopolièstato[Editor’snote:TheConstantinopleupdatehasbeendelayed, without new date set at the time of writing.]
My bet is that this is not the last hard fork of Ethereum this year, and that PoS was knocked out in 2019.
What this will do to Ethereum is yet to be seen – however, I am more optimistic about the prospects for other Ethereum-based currencies.
A lot of hash power will leave the Ethereum network and will have to find a new place in the mine.
With the recent hard fork on the Ubiq network, they seem well positioned to take advantage of this with their new hashing algorithm, Ubqhash, aimed at mitigating the 51% threat of attacks while separating themselves from other Ethash coins. Ubiq would be a logical place to enjoy this passage.
This also brings me well to my final prediction.
5. 51% attack the "shared hash algorithm" coins increase
When Ethereum passes to Proof-of-Stake, a lot of hashing power will be freed from rental services like nicehash. This will make the cost of sticking coins with shared algorithms much simpler and potentially cheaper.
With this in mind, I think the probability that 51% of attacks will increase is high. Coins with active defenses against this will probably be safer places to invest and outperform the market in 2019.
Even coins with independent hashing algorithms like Ubiq will do well and this provides an additional level of security against these threats.
Contribution by Kris Lester
Kris has worked in the technology industry for over a decade, with new and innovative technologies, ultimately becoming a fan of Blockchain's revolutionary potential. He is the Community Manager of Ubiq and a long-standing member of their community.