It's been a long time since the president of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, didn't work. But the hardest blow was received last Sunday in the primaries, when it was learned that the Peronist Alberto Fernández took 15 points ahead of him in the elections considered as a pre-election poll on the presidential election of 27 October and that the president of possibility of re-election.
And although Macri expected a defeat against Fernandez in the Paso (open primary, simultaneous and mandatory), the extent of the electoral arrest was not among the plans. The Peronist remained with 47.65 percent of the votes and the president, with 32.08.
"The difference in the Paso was so strong and so frightening, especially in the great province of Buenos Aires, which has almost 38 percent of the national electorate, that virtually leaves Macri out of the race, "said political analyst Carlos de Angelis at EL TIEMPO.
According to experts, voters have punished Macri for the economic crisis that manifests itself with 10.1 percent unemployment, 32 percent poverty and 55 percent inflation. Added to this is the fiscal adjustment plan that the president implements with an aid of 56,000 million dollars from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"The Paso has generated a sort of plebiscite in which almost 70% of the population has declared that they do not want this economic policy. That percentage doesn't know what he wants, but he knows what he doesn't want, "added De Angelis.
As for the result of the elections, I know I understood them. That this happened is purely and exclusively my responsibility and my government team
The victory of Fernandez and the fear that Macri's policies will be interrupted sparked a storm in the markets on Monday, which led to a devaluation of the Argentine peso, which fell by 18.76%, while the stock market withdrew around 30 percent.
After being angry with voters and blaming financial uncertainty for the "difficult legacy" received by Kirchnerism in power, Macri had to take responsibility for the crisis.
"About the result of the elections, know that I understood you. That this has happened is solely my responsibility and that of my government team, "said the president, announcing measures that include raising the minimum wage, a reduction in the tax on profits that is imposed on the salaries, a monthly bonus for government employees, the military and freezing of fuel prices for 90 days, among others.
The problem, according to analysts, is that the measures are only palliative. "If he had done it before, it could have had some effect in mitigating the great pain of the Argentine crisis, but now, just over two months before the elections, it will be interpreted as a political move and not be credible in the eyes of many Argentines "said Michael Shifter, president of the inter-American dialogue.
C & # 39; is also those who believe that the package proposed by Macri can subtract more votes. "We saw a confusion between Macri and President Macri. This can generate even more anger because if the president takes measures simply to win the election, the punishment could be deepened in October, "said De Angelis.
In fact, the disagreement was visible on Thursday, when thousands of people demonstrated in Buenos Aires to reject the economic policies and the crisis that brought the country to the brink of collapse.
In the end, the week ended with a weight loss of 19.91 percent, with the deterioration of the Argentine debt note by S&P and Fitch Rating agencies – What has changed from "B" to "CCC", claiming that political uncertainty "increases the probability of a sovereign default or a sort of restructuring" – and with the resignation of this Saturday by the finance minister, Nicolás Dujovne .
"Given the circumstances, (governmental) management needs significant renewal in the economic area," Dujovne said in his resignation letter. Now whoever takes the wallet, according to local media, will be the Minister of the Economy of the province of Buenos Aires, Hernán Lacunza.
The truth is that the path of re-election of the Argentine president seems uphill, not only because the economic crisis has deepened, but also because Fernández – despite having Cristina de Kirchner as the presidential formula – is seen as a more moderate Peronist. The candidate "has shown signs of a more open policy and position towards the international financial community, with the United States and other key players," said Shifter.
If we go deep into the structure, Macri has no time to change the economic plan
Given this scenario, experts believe that the best thing for Macri now is to strengthen his party. "If we go deep into the structure, Macri does not have the time to change the economic plan … The chances of winning the elections are minimal, especially because the province of Buenos Aires is already lost. What you need to do is minimize the damage because it is a political force that will continue in Argentina (…). If they do, perhaps even society will see them again with better eyes, "said De Angelis.
"(…) If Macri is not re-elected, which seems to be the case, he has at least the responsibility of maintaining a political force in competition with Peronism," said Shifter.
SANDRA RAMIREZ CARREÑO
International Deputy Director