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Welcome Darkness, My Old Friend


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For those doubts the price could go down, this month has been quite interesting. More than 90B in burn marketcap. Went like the wind. A real bloodbath.

I do not know if I should laugh or cry. Honestly.

In one hand, fantastic, I can buy more Bitcoins at cheaper prices. From the other side, damn it.

Do we seriously need another beating?

Why did the stock markets not keep blocking instead? Why could not you just leave our dear btc alone?

2018 was really ungrateful for the hodlers. Some fragments of hope here and there; but above all, horrible massacres. Just looking at absolute volumes, one can argue that crypto-markets have become unattractive to most retail investors who joined the end of 2017.

Although the hashrate has been able to maintain more or less constant, we are witnessing a decline in transaction numbers, which is quite surprising as it is now cheaper to buy and sell bitcoins, due to lower fees (in fiat).

Public data obtained on Coinpayments.net, which processes transactions for dozens of traditional cryptocurrencies, showed that it had seen a fall of 50% in the first half of the year.

Now, since we are already in deep-sh **, why not remember the worst barrels of the year? Since we are going down, we could even go down and laugh!

Before embracing the dark, hopefully in a fun way, a word of seriousness. As reported by Greg @ Hacked:

Bitcoin moved to less than $ 4,000 for the first time in the same period, hitting $ 3,819 on the BTC / USDT market. Market fluctuations have also affected Tether, so the real figure in US dollars may be slightly higher. However, the price of BitMEX BTC / USD also fell to a low of $ 3,686.

Meanwhile, Stellar (XLM) got the worst hit from the major altcoins, scoring 22.4% on Saturday.

If you do not like to joke about serious things, this next piece may not be for you.

Otherwise, please have fun.

-This article should not be taken as financial advice as it represents my personal opinion and points of view. I have some savings invested in cryptocurrency, so take everything I write with a pinch of salt. Do not invest what you can not afford to lose and always read as much as possible on a project before investing. Never forget: with great power comes a great responsibility. Being your bank means you are always responsible for your money

The Worst Beatings Of 2018

As a starting point, I choose the end of December 2017. Do not start complaining again, my logic makes sense because the first real big price drop occurred in December, last year.

The first bearish signal occurred between December 17 and December 22, just before the Christmas holidays.

128B (in marketcap) evaporated in a few days. This was one of the worst price drops in Bitcoin's history.

However, we managed to recover. Just to break legs: between 6 January and 6 February, the btc marketcap fell to 190B. It went from around 295 to 105 billion. An absolute wreck.

Nobody expected such a big decline in just a month. The capitalization of Bitcoin has literally halved during the period between December 2017 and early February 2018.

That manipulation, tho.

If the previous 2 bars were not big enough, the players decided to continue to short Bitcoin. So, between March 5 and April 1 (do not fool anyone here), marketcap decreased by 87 billion. Not as bad as the previous ones, but it's just because there was less sales volume. After the February recovery to close to $ 200 billion, short sellers grabbed the bull by the horns and took off again, at around 110 billion.

The news at the time was, of course, focused on blaming the CMBC Bitcoin futures markets for price reductions, which made perfect sense.

We must not forget that during these moments of maximum and minimum, on board there were few institutional investors.

I can not really imagine what will come.

Fast forward a month and we have another one Baptista Bomb on marketcap. This time, between May 6 and May 29, the Bitcoin marketcap went from 169B to 121B. Only 48B have lost this time.

Not bad!

Of course, for those of you who bought Bitcoin at a premium value (8K +), despair started kicking off. This was the moment when the news started to get darker, and some people started to consider the price of Bitcoin to fall to 5k at the end.

We're not far from those bearish predictions now, are we?

During the summer the price of Bitcoin rose and fell, burning around 40b in the market cap, between July 25th and August 14th.

For those who enjoyed the summer holidays, those were really bad news. And it was at this point that many of us accepted the harsh reality. The price of Bitcoin may not be recovered anytime soon.

Although I do not think it was the deadly blow.

The feeling was already strong enough, but at the end of the tunnel there were still lights.

Hope was still alive.

In my mind the final flow took place between September 5 and September 9, when the market cap was around 127b, and September 9, when marketcap fell to 107B.

Although the drop was about half of what happened the previous time, for the most part it was the actual fatality move.

A destructive kick in the balls.

It was at this point that google trends showed that sentiment is at its lowest levels since the beginning of 2017.

One thing that some people do not realize is that starting from January 2018 both prices lower volatility and the difference between the minimum and maximum levels has stabilized.

This is, if we compare the amounts lost in terms of market cap by date, this is what we see:

190B -> 87B -> 48B -> 20B -> 12B

Does the quantity lost in half each time seem interesting?

I can not guarantee that these drops have been calculated accurately, since it is almost impossible to say; however, it seems curious that we have a correlation so high between the min-max (or the lost average) of each period, being the latest half of the previous one.

This result gives me confidence in believing that we are coming to a point of true stability and that the price should rise soon.

My personal bet?

Until the end of the first quarter of 2019, the price of Bitcoin will double.

Let's see if my analysis has better performance than Bitcoin in recent months. If not … well, buy them a little more!

Conclusion

Since Bitcoin was released many booms and explosions have occurred, due to a variety of reasons. Some of the most epic I would like to mention are:

  1. June 2011: The price of Bitcoin rose from $ 0.95 in early 2011 and peaked at $ 32 from 8 to 10 June 2011. By June 12, 2011, however, the currency lost around 68% in value. A further decline was seen at $ 2 in November 2011, contributing to a 94% decline. This was associated with initial volatility, so Bitcoin saw more interest from traders despite this incident.
  2. January 2012: At the start of 2012, the currency further increased in value to $ 7.20. An unexpected accident occurred between 16 and 17 January 2012, when the value fell 36% to $ 4.60. While the currency recovered sufficiently at $ 6.25, it continued to wiggle in the market for the next six months. This was a rather alarming proposal for the first investors who had seen a maximum of $ 32 in the previous year.
  3. August 2012: Bitcoin has recovered quite well between July and August 2012 to reach a maximum of $ 15.25. This happy trend was soon interrupted by a fall of around 51% on August 18, 2012 to reach $ 10.50, and then fell further to $ 7.50 in the same month. The cryptocurrency remained below the value of $ 15 for the remainder of the year.
  4. April 2013: While the price rose to as high as $ 266 in April 2013, it also sharply declined in the same month by about 71% to a value of $ 67. Experts attributed this fall to investor enthusiasm through coverage media and a brief interruption to the Mount. Gox exchange.
  5. November 2013: The price of Bitcoin remained at around $ 120 for the remainder of the year and then rose again in November to reach a peak value of $ 1,150 towards the end of the month. This was clearly due to the haste of new investors who were attracted to the new cryptocurrency. In mid-December 2013, another huge meltdown occurred. The currency lost value to $ 500. It remained below $ 1,000 for the next two years.

Despite the terrible news around during these periods, Bitcoin has always managed to recover; every boom and bust is a perfect example to show how resilient cryptocurrencies can be supported by a strong community.

Whatever you can hear now on Bitcoin always remember: markets work in cycles. If you are patient enough you will be able to participate in both bearish and bullish cycles.

The key element is the right time market.

Good trades!

Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in the article are exclusively those of the author and do not represent those of, or should be attributed to, CCN.

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