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It was not a surprise, but in the end it was a shock: the laboriously negotiated exit agreement did not have the slightest chance in the lower house. Can you have a "Plan B"?
All the pros and cons, all the chaos and crash warnings, all appeals to the reason – did not work. The Brexit deal crashed Tuesday night in the British House of Commons. About ten weeks before the scheduled departure date, British Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union are facing a debacle. How to make a plan B on the fly? May wants to make his suggestion next Monday. Many options no longer remain to avoid a chaotic break on March 29th.
1. A second vote in the lower house
Since the defeat was dramatic with 432 votes against the 202, a new vote on the same agreement makes no sense. Before Tuesday night's vote, for example, the CDU Brexit expert Elmar Brok had said that with 80 votes against or not, a second attempt could be made. Brok then declared: "The defeat in the House of Commons for the withdrawal agreement was so high that the British government is now on the move".
This message sounded unanimously from Brussels to London. "I urge the United Kingdom to communicate its ideas on how to proceed as soon as possible," said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. This also means that the EU does not want to offer anything new on its own. Instead, he hopes on the move in London – or a different position of May or more influence of the opposition. If Britain were to forge closer ties with the EU, for example in a customs union, the exit agreement should not be dead, Brok said.
Two factors could stimulate change in London, says Fabian Zuleeg from the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Center (EPC): "The additional pressure could help", which is the nearest release date. "And the economic pressure will increase," said Zuleeg, the German news agency.
2. The movement of Brexit
Prime Minister May repeatedly rejected an extension of the moratorium on 29 March. But it would not be the first time that the head of the conservative government is changing its line. He could make a request to the other 27 EU Member States and he would probably also agree, according to the diplomats.
But from the point of view of the EU, this would only make sense if there was a concrete justification, like a new election or a second referendum in the UK. And it would only be for a very limited time. After the European elections from 23 to 26 May, the new European Parliament will be constituted at the beginning of July.
If the British are still members of the EU, they too should send parliamentarians to Strasbourg. On the other hand, not only the leader of the European People's Party (EPP), Manfred Weber, is rebelling. It would not be clear to Europeans that "a country that wants to leave the European Union will participate in the European elections, shaping the continent's future for the next five years," Weber warned Tuesday.
3. New referendum or new elections
For a second referendum on membership of Great Britain, the deadline would be very tight until the end of June. The European expert Zuleeg calculated that this would take about five months in advance in Britain according to the guidelines of the electoral commission. Furthermore it is not clear on which question the British should vote. And this would really prevent an exit without agreements? "How much security is there?" Zuleeg churches. "We can not assume that the British electorate will change."
A new election could advance a friendly Brexit solution, especially because the opposition Labor Party is in favor of a tighter majority towards the EU, with a customs union and integration into the internal market of the EU. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn wants to force the government to fall on Wednesday with a vote of no confidence. His chances of success, however, are considered weak.
4. Withdrawal of the Brexit application
The European Court of Justice paved the way for a ruling in December: Britain could unilaterally withdraw its request to withdraw from the European Union at any time, even before it leaves the country. The country would simply remain a member of the EU. Therefore, a further request for resignation is not excluded. You would have earned time. But: "This is very unlikely," said the leader of the parliamentary group SPD in the European Parliament, Udo Bullmann, the dpa. This reaction should be approved by the British Parliament. "This is a very high obstacle," said Zuleeg. In British domestic politics, this option has barely had a role so far.
5. Falling over the cliff
Corbyn pointed out in the parliamentary debate on Tuesday that the lower house is largely against a Brexit without agreement, that is, against an exit without rules, without a contract, in which dramatic economic upheavals are feared.
But what should be the ordered solution is not yet clear. Given the profound divisions in British politics and the fact that some British MPs do not find a "nothing at all" wrong, it can not be ruled out that the country is slipping over the cliff by mistake or due to time constraints. For businesses, employees and citizens, this would result in dramatic uncertainties and probably a collapse of the economy. The Social Democrat Bullmann remains confident: "If everyone remains reasonably comforted, it does not have to be that way."
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