The Weirdest Prediction Markets on Augur Right Now



Do you believe in God? Do you want to put your cryptocurrency investments on it?

Augur, an etherum platform for betting on the outcome of real-world events, aims to be a repository of crowd-sourced knowledge for journalists, investors and politicians, as well as an effective tool to cover adverse outcomes.

But it has also become something else: an exhilarating troll place.

The forums to question a higher power are just one of the many markets currently existing on the decentralized forecasting market, developed by the Nonprofit Forecast Foundation and financed with one of the world's first token sales in 2015.

That sale of tokens took place before people even used the word initial offer of coins, or ICO, to refer to these types of cryptography fundraising schemes, and the project went through the ICO boom in beta – with developers testing and checking one of the most anticipated launches in the history of cryptography.

As such, when it was launched on ethereum Last month's blockchain has briefly overtaken the most famous decentralized application, CryptoKitties, in terms of the number of users. Although the enthusiasm has undergone a notable immersion.

So far, most of Augur's markets – and the vast majority of exchanges on the platform – deal with relatively vanilla topics such as sports event results or cryptographic asset prices. But some take a very dark turn, measuring the likelihood of assassination of prominent figures or of terrorist attacks and mass shootings.

Others, however, are simply stupid, evoking the peculiar obsessions of cryptocurrency, the wild voices and the kinds of riddles that a bridge troll might ask before letting you pass.

So here are Augur users who have selflessly donated their time and potentially their funds – market makers post a link in the platform's native REP tokens, which they lose if the market is considered "invalid" because the result can not be verified – all to illuminate the days of their colleagues

In no particular order, here are some of the most bizarre markets of Augur today.

Vitalik's girlfriend [19659012] Vitalik Buterin, creator of ethereum, the second most valuable blockchain in the world, enjoys the kind of wealth and notoriety that have fewer children of 24 years.

Do you have a girlfriend? And if not now, when?

These questions have quite irritated the crypto community to generate a dedicated article, apparently seen over 18,000 times. And now, indelibly engraved in the creation of Buterin, there is also an Augur market.

The same Buterin must confirm the relationship, according to the terms of the market, and the couple must have been together for at least a whole day.

It is worth noting here (as in many Augur markets) no one has bet on this at the time of writing.

Are you there, God?

Ostensibly, Augur markets must be based on verifiable events, but Augur is a platform without moderators, so it has become more than a guideline.

As mentioned above, the perfect example: someone asked the question: "Does God exist?"

"apparently in no hurry to find out, how the market expires at the start of 2020. And the source of the resolution must be the" newsletter ".


The pagan users who started the market give the universe creator a 10% chance to exist. No money is at stake at the time of writing.

SAFU or not SAFU

Of course, Augur users have not given up the chance to sprinkle the platform with their particular taste of memes.

Entitled "FUNDS" ARE SAFU? "a market refers to a bizarre – but popular – message from YouTube CEO Binance Changpeng" CZ "Zhao's attempt to reassure users that their cryptographic properties on the platform were secure. [19659002]

Looking at the details of the market, however, it seems not to be a joke, but a serious – if vaguely worded – question about the fact that Binance will be hacked: "It will be the security of https: // www.binance.com/ be negatively influenced in such a way that there is a noteworthy loss of money? "

The market has run out without any bets being placed.

Do not calculate

The competition is stiff, but the most active trolliest market on Augur could well be a reaffirmation of the liar paradox – the type of query that could be used to neutralize a homicidal supercomputer.


For the uninitiated, the statement "this sentence is false" is a paradox because, if the 39. statement is, in fact, false, means that it checks out.Therefore it is true

If the statement is true – being false – then it violates its own premise: it must be false.

Think about this paradox dates back to at least the 4th century BC, making it one of the longest-lasting losers of humanity.Adding a pinch of circular meta-salt to this concoction, the creator of the market has been the point of reference for this market Predictions. Global, a sit or erasing data from Augur.

The pipe of pee

The accusation that the Russian authorities possess compromising material on the US President Donald Trump is one of the strangest stories that will emerge from the elections of 2016.

The existence of this compromising material – coming from a collection of documents prepared by a former British secret service officer who works (indirectly) on behalf of Democrats – is often known as "pee tape" because of its alleged content.

But it has not been demonstrated.

Judging from an Augur market on the subject, although there are about one in four that this tape will emerge before Trump's first quarter end.

The volume of bets on the market was very low, however, with a value of less than $ 60.

The daring prediction of McAfee

Many of Augur's most liquid and precious markets deal with cryptocurrency prices.

So at first glance, it's hard to see what's extraordinary about a particular market that predicts that the bitcoin price will exceed $ 1 million by 2020. [19659002] But there's a clue in the fact that it is labeled "McAfee."

The antivirus-creator-turned-cryptocurrency-hype-man software has published many inadvisable tweets. At the top of the list, however, is one since the end of 2017, when predicted that bitcoin would hit $ 1 million and reiterate a promise that he had done before to "eat my dick on national television" "If it has proved not to be correct.

Yet another market of Augur comes to the, um, flesh of history.

And it is probably quite Augur for today.

Monkey with banana image via Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash


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