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Predictive markets rolled with the vote count in the United States. Two other encrypted payment cards are planned on the market. Nearly $ 1 billion of BTC was transferred from a long-dormant wallet potentially linked to the closed Silk Road exchange.
Upper shelf
The episode begins
The Ethereum 2.0 deposit agreement is now active, at 15:00 UTC. According to developer Afri Schoedon, the deposit agreement (a bridge between the upcoming proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain and the current mainchain proof-of-work (PoW)) is the first physical implementation of Eth 2.0 for everyday users. On a practical level, Ethereum stakers can now start depositing the 32 ether (ETH) needed to bet on Eth 2.0. Once 16,384 validators have deposited funds equivalent to a total of 524,288 ETH in the contract, the Beacon chain – the backbone of Ethereum 2.0’s multiple blockchain design – will go into action in what is called the Ethereum 2.0 “genesis” event. . This event is expected within the next few weeks.
On the road again
According to blockchain intelligence firm Elliptic, a wallet likely belonging to the first dark net market Silk Road moved nearly $ 1 billion worth of bitcoin early Wednesday. Nearly 70,000 BTC was transferred to an unknown wallet. This is the first transaction from the address since 2015, when it transferred 101 BTC to BTC-e, a now-closed cryptocurrency exchange allegedly favored by money launderers, according to the post. “These funds probably came from the Silk Road,” noted Elliptic co-founder Tom Robinson in a LinkedIn post, adding that the coins may have been moved by imprisoned Silk Road operator Ross Ulbricht or a Silk Road vendor. Road.
Related: First Mover: Just another day for Bitcoin as US elections slide into discord, division
Cryptographic cards
ZenGo, a wallet company, will be the latest to join Visa’s Fast Track program, intending to launch a crypto-integrated payment card for the US in early 2021. Using multi-party computing ( MPC), the ZenGo wallet and the possible card, will allow users to convert their cryptocurrency into fiat so that it can be spent on the Visa network and withdrawn from ATMs, without having to put their cryptographic keys in third-party custody . Visa’s Fast Track program previously sponsored Bitcoin’s Lightning network and rewards the Fold app. Separately, China’s UnionPay, the world’s largest credit and debit card company, has teamed up with a Korean payment company to offer its Paycoin cryptocurrency for an upcoming virtual card offering.
Difficulty falling
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty dropped by more than 16% in its latest programmatic adjustment, the largest percentage decrease since the advent of ASIC mining machines in late 2012. Now at its lowest level since June, a decline in difficulty, preceded By the end of the Chinese rainy season, bitcoin miners are expected to see an increase in profits. The margins “for efficient miners will widen significantly,” wrote John Lee Quigley, director of research at HASHR8, adding that less efficient miners will be able to re-mine profitably. Mining difficulty is a measure of the amount of resources needed to compete for fresh bitcoin mining, which changes roughly every two weeks based on changes in the estimated total hash power consumed.
Lawsuit Layer1
Bitcoin miner Layer1 Technologies was sued by a co-founder who claims he invested millions of dollars and was then forced to leave the company. In a complaint filed with the United States District Court in the Western District of Texas Pecos division, the actor, Jakov Dolic, claims he co-founded Layer1 with its CEO Alexander Liegl, under the assumption that the company would be able to raise $ 50 million from investors for a bitcoin mining facility. Even if the investments never arrived. Dolic said it has invested $ 16.24 million of its funds to purchase a power substation and another $ 3.5 million to expand the power plant – and now says the funds should be repaid, under a contractual arrangement.
Quick bites
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An Australian senator said blockchain technology could help facilitate one-touch government and strengthen financial regulation. (CoinDesk)
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Telegram will pay about $ 620,000 in legal fees after admitting defeat in its copyright lawsuit related to the messaging app token “GRAM” ticker. (Decrypt)
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Hong Kong plans to ban retail investors from buying cryptocurrencies. (Modern Consensus)
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Blockchain analytics firms have privacy advocates concerned. (CoinDesk)
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The Atari token drops 70% a few days after the public sale ends. (Cointelegraph)
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Binance said it recovered nearly all of the $ 345,000 worth of cryptocurrency stolen in an October scam launched on its Binance Smart Chain. (CoinDesk)
Market information
Taxes run away
Ethereum miners’ income more than halved in October as the DeFi craze declined. Ethereum users paid $ 57.49 million in transaction fees in October, down 65% from September’s record monthly record of $ 166.39 million, according to data source Glassnode. Furthermore, the maximum price of “gas” fell from 5.18 million gwei to 0.6 million gwei in October, according to data source Bitquery. “Transaction costs have fallen as volumes on decentralized exchanges declined, reducing demand for network bandwidth,” Alex Mashinsky, CEO and founder of cryptocurrency lender Celsius, told CoinDesk. Trading volume on decentralized exchanges fell nearly 25% to $ 19.4 billion in October, posting the first monthly decline since April.
At stake
Related: First Mover: 11 election talking points on Bitcoin as a loss point for TRUMP futures
What happens to the prediction markets?
With the US presidential election in the balance, one thing has become clear: Primary sources for predictive election analysis – mainstream media and pollsters – will see their value and confidence degrade following a significant miscalculation until November 3. .
What was predicted to be a possible crackling election for former Vice President Joseph Biden has turned into a nail-biting count in some fluctuating states. With clear “paths to victory” giving way to “reversals”, many in the cryptocurrency industry have instead turned their attention to predictive markets. The theory is based on the bet that those with “skin in the game” (re: cold hard money) could provide more insight.
Ahead of the election, CoinDesk reported that volumes on decentralized cryptocurrency prediction markets have increased. Polymarket, a non-custodial platform where users place bets on the dollar-backed USDC stablecoin, saw volumes climb from zero to nearly $ 3 million in three weeks. Other crypto-based platforms, such as YieldWars and Augur, have also begun to attract attention, after long periods of inactivity.
Obviously, the interest in trustless betting has occurred amid a greater wave of use of centralized platforms like PredictIt. More than $ 1 billion has been locked in various forecasting markets trying to determine who will enter the Oval Office in January.
In the turmoil of state-to-state vote counts, prediction markets have seen many betting that President Donald Trump would keep his office, reversing a trend that previously favored Biden.
Well-known industry venture capitalist Nic Carter tweeted last night that “trump is overpriced at 68c” on FTX’s domestic forecast market. $ TRUMP, a bet that the president of the United States would prevail eventually surpassed $ 0.80 before being replaced by press time.
All this is to say that election predictions are as fickle as polls, albeit in different ways. In an election where cryptocurrencies have largely remained out of the picture, both in terms of candidate mandates and as a political contributing figure, betting markets are just another avenue in pursuit of alpha.
Forecast markets are more entertainment than anything else, Carter said on Telegram. “In general, although they are a useful, albeit lossy, news compression, especially in unstable situations that are difficult to analyze (like last night).”
“Betting markets are not great barometers. I attended several PredictIt meetups in 2016. The big shots were day traders who just wanted to trade more daily. There is no secret sauce there. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, but oracular they are not, ”NBC News reporter Ben Collins weighed.
Even less sure? The future of decentralized forecasting markets.
YieldWars co-founder pseudonym Owl previously told CoinDesk that the sudden increase in trading volume was to be expected given the weight of the election. Although it is not clear if it will last.
“Crypto-based prediction markets should thrive on blockchain right now, but they have failed to deliver up to this point. The elections gave birth to prediction markets, but what will happen when they end? Will people be so excited about it?” “Owl said.
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