Predictions blockchain and cryptocurrency 2019 – Vol. VIII
We continue our series of forecasts from industry thought leaders about what could happen next year.
With almost every measure, 2018 has been a busy year for the blockchain / cryptocurrency industries. Beyond the usual issues affecting young companies in hiring, marketing, technology and financing, companies have been involved in a crisis of trust with investors, as cryptography markets have lost 80% % of their total value from the beginning of the year.
Add to that the magical source of funding caused by the reduction of initial coin offerings, the increase in government control and the absolute ban on certain activities, and the bitter battles between technology developers that have caused market rotations, and it is surprising that any company has survived such serious winds against it.
But in 2019, the survivors of this industrial winter demonstrate confidence in the underlying technology of the blockchain and in the continuing promise of cryptocurrency. They stress that institutional investors are still on the sidelines and many retail supporters are still not at stake.
Add this to the constant interest of large companies and the spirit of innovation shown by blockchains and crypto-pioneers, and the story seems much brighter than the simple numbers would suggest.
Block Tribune has asked industry thought leaders to consider what might happen next year. Now, until the end of the month, we will highlight their thoughts on what could happen in what every hope will be a happy and prosperous 2019.
Michael Terpin, CEO, Transform Group:
I predict we will have a further decline in bitcoins over the next three months, which will be short and severe, followed by a very slow new bull market that will take us to new highs of $ 50,000 or more by the end of 2021.
Bitcoin will remain the main asset class crypto for at least the next five years (provided that nothing breaks in its code and Satoshi does not spend any of his first $ 1.1 million coins not yet spent). Craig Wright, who now claims to be Satoshi (with a bit of credibility, as well as skepticism – he was certainly an early participant and has many bitcoins of ownership over Satoshi's stock) has fielded the Bitcoin SV fork of Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin Cash itself was a controversial crossroads of bitcoins last August to solve scalability problems and lower commissions, which was "repaired" a few months after the success of the Segregated Witness protocol, also known as SegWit.
Now all three sides: Bitcoin Core (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Cash Satoshi Vision (BCH SV), so called by Wright as it is the 0.1 version of bitcoin, which says (with his hat Satoshi) it was perfect and should never have been altered. Is Craig Wright the real Satoshi or Faketoshi? Bitcoin original purist or Machiavellian opportunist? Most likely the fate of BTC is based on whether it is fact or fiction. And this is the main reason why the markets are still unstable and can hardly sustain any upward momentum until it is decided: win, lose or draw.
Finally me predict that "altcoin" (in particular "Dapps") – left dead by many after their fall of 70-99 percent will have a forked future: money grabs without real product, demand or community (or persecuted by lawmakers and class lawyers action, right or wrong) will probably close the store (voluntarily or forcefully) and their pawns will gradually drift towards zero (or their chains will be picked up and re-launched, somehow similar to what happens with mergers inverse in the pink sheets).
If you are a long-time holder (aka "hodler") you can simply keep this last piece of winter out and set your watch for 2020 to start paying attention again (or whenever you see a coin owned by Satoshi moving around everywhere). If you've never owned bitcoin, it's a reasonable time in the market cycle to start costing on average as a long-term purchase at current prices, as well as placing purchase orders for the last price of "blood in the streets" at $ 3500, $ 3000 and $ 2500 if the final capitulation occurs. Just be prepared to cancel the order if the Satoshi coins move.
Nelson Petracek, CTO, TIBCO
TRIBUNA BLOCK: Did the recent cryptographic crypts affect your perspective and / or plans for 2019?
ANSWER: The recent cryptographic crypts have helped to reduce some of the "clamor" associated with blockchain technologies, but the interest in the application of real-world use cases to technology has not been much reduced by what we saw at TIBCO. There is still a lot of work to do on the investigation of cases of use / research and technological advances. Work is not as public as it was when cryptic prices skyrocketed. This is a good thing because it focuses on the business value and the appropriate use of technology, rather than losing these critical factors in the "noise" of the ICO.
- What role will the stablecoins have on the market in 2019?
o It will be interesting to see how sttabolin evolves in 2019. The recent stoppage of the basic standard – and the resulting return of funding – along with regulatory uncertainty make it difficult to predict the role of stablecoin. I believe that the stablecoin's current popularity is driven by people's desire to reduce the volatility associated with the crypto in general, with the benefits of a decentralized structure. However, the current mechanisms for supporting currencies with an existing resource still seem to entail a significant amount of risk. These mechanisms depend on the growth of the platform, the performance of other cryptocurrencies (which have proved to be a problem) or unregulated support statements through fiat currency. Until stablecoins can demonstrate that these risks can be managed, I do not think they will continue to grow and will see high levels of adoption in 2019.
- Where do you see Bitcoin in 2019 and why?
o Probably we will see a recovery in the price of Bitcoin in 2019 when the clamor surrounding the various ICOs will decrease and the relative low quality cryptocurrencies will disappear. People focused on value retention will return to the network as new products are created. However, this could quickly change if governments are moving against cryptocurrencies in general.
- Which sectors – energy, e-commerce, gambling – do you think will have the greatest impact in the blockchain sector in 2019? (Feel free to choose other sectors)
o Emerging government regulations and legal uncertainty could have a major impact on the cryptographic side of the blockchain in 2019. Whether it is security standards or laws or stable currencies or any other "new / invented" currency . Regarding the use cases that could see blockchain success in 2019, we will see evolving use cases in a number of vertical sectors, including chain of custody / supply chain. Probably this is the most common use case in 2019. Also, I suspect the following verticals will experiment and work with blockchain in the next year: government (eg "paperless" value exchanges or improvements in areas such as , identity), health care (eg management of the life cycle of revenue), transport / logistics and finance.
- Which event would you like to see happen in 2019?
o I would like to see the implementation of a scalability solution on Ethereum, regardless of whether this solution is similar to Plasma or Raiden Network, or even a similar variation (such as another gateway or sharing protocols).
o Whether Ethereum can prove to be a viable platform to support the creation of decentralized applications, support for ICOs (or new forms of financing / tokens) or a platform for the execution of smart contracts, will have to prove relatively early that it can scale beyond what is possible today.
- Did the ICO die as an effective fundraiser? Why or why not?
The mechanism / environment for the release of an ICO from 2017/2018 is dead, but ICOs as a concept are not necessarily dead in the future. The approach of issuing an ICO on a white paper and an & # 39; idea (often unrealistic) is no longer viable. Investors and regulatory bodies demand greater transparency, focus on the real value of the solution (with associated real demand and potential increase in network utilization), increased quality / legal guidance and a general market move away from the "next big" what "and the" fear of losing ". For the right situation, an ICO may still be an appropriate mechanism for raising funds – it is not the appropriate mechanism for all funds, especially in areas that are not able to adopt cryptography or distrust the corporate value blockchain technology. create.