The market data show that the meme-themed dogecoin was the worst currency of the 25 largest cryptocurrencies in the world by capitalization for the month of October.
The cryptocurrency, derided by some, loved by others, arrived for the first time on the market in 2014 and since then has gone through a series of boom-and-bust cycles in terms of overall market performance.
The most recent cryptocurrency price boom started at the end of August and lasted until the beginning of September, when the price rose more than 160% to reach a maximum of six months of $ 0.0068 on the 10th. September, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Those fortunes were reversed in October, with a 36% monthly loss that brought the price of money to more than 50 percent below that September tide.
And as can be seen in the chart below, these cyclical price movements are not new to DOGE.
According to data from Coinmetrics.io, DOGE often provides a 30-day yield of more than 100 percent, as illustrated by the thin orange line. The price of DOGE vs BTC includes the orange area in the background, which further shows the cyclical nature of its price action.
Indeed, 2015 was the only year in which a 30-day return above 100 percent was not included, although it approached 94 percent in a 30-day time frame.
In addition, 30-day percentage yields have exceeded 300 percent on several occasions since 2014.
As you can see, booms are often followed by busts when monthly returns hover above or significantly below zero. This metric entered negative territory on October 10 and still has to return to a positive value.
In fact, for DOGE it was a poor month in terms of percentage variation, but with 22 of the 25 largest global cryptocurrencies that recorded losses in October, the performance of DOGE was not unique.
Monthly performance: -36 percent
Historical maximum: $ 0.017
Closing price on October 31st: $ 0.003764
Ranking according to market capitalization: 23
DOGE has had a slow but steady decline since the month started at a price of $ 0.0058, until it ended with a 36% lower price of $ 0.003764.
From opening to closing, October was the worst month of DOGE since last March, when it fell 52%.
In terms of monthly trading volume, the $ 403 billion in October was only 30 percent of the previous month's $ 1.2 billion and the lowest since July, according to CoinMarketCap.
On 31 August, the price of DOGE turned out to be bullish on a fall wedge (bullish reversal model) which laid the groundwork for its latest "boom" cycle.
As with all the expansion cycles of DOGE, however, it was eventually exceeded September 10th at the price of $ 0.007, according to Poloniex data, and the price began its decline thereafter.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool linking the $ 0.0023 minimum of August 14 to the $ 0.007 peak, we can see that the price is close to the gold ratio of 0.618 retracement, which may offer support for a temporary move. That said, the price has found a lower acceptance at the 200-day EMA, so a sustained rally will not come easily.
Coincidentally, the Fibonacci 0.618 is at the same level as the previous bolt cycles of DOGE, $ 0.0041. Resistance tends to tip over to support once it is broken, which bodes well for the immediate price action of DOGE.
Furthermore, the relative strength index (RSI) approaches oversold territory, which means that sellers may lose strength in the short term. The indicator of mean convergence and mean divergence (MACD) echoes similar sentiments and the short-term uptrend case would strengthen if the indicators will produce a bullish crossover in the coming days.
It should be noted that DOGE tends to retrace significantly after a strong inclination, sometimes over 100 percent, so history would suggest that the price is unlikely to keep the current level too long.
If the daily GPMM Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator turns red, it will probably confirm that there is a further negative effect for DOGE, in which case the subsequent Fibonacci retracement of 0.786 near the $ price level 0,0030 could be considered as a support.
Revelation: The author retains BTC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing.
Image of Dogecoin via Shutterstock; Charts through TradingView