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Original title: Meituan-W (03690.HK) 20Q3 in-depth review and recap: Fully Resume Growth, Focus on Long-Term Value, Maintain “Recommended” Valuation, HK $ 346 Target Price
mechanism:Founder Securities
Rating: recommended
Target price: HK $ 346
Event: Meituan released the third quarter quarter of 2020 on November 30, 2020Performancerelationship.the company 20Q3 implementationOperating income 35.4 billion yuan (on an annual basis + 29%, on a quarterly basis + 43%), grossprofit 10.8 billion yuan (YoY + 13%, QoQ + 26%), operating profit of 6.72 billion yuan (YoY + 363%), including investments in listed entitiesFair valueVariable income of 5.8 billion yuan, adjustedNet profitThis is 2.05 billion yuan (+ 6% year on year). our opinion:
1. Analysis of the main financial indicators:In 20Q3, the company recovered from the outbreak and achieved overall growth. The new layout and coordinated development performance of the new business exceeded expectations, achieving operating profit of 35.4 billion yuan (YoY + 29%, QoQ + 43%) and gross profit of 10.8 billion yuan (YoY + 13%, QoQ) + 26%), operating profit of 6.72 billion yuan, including investments in listed entitiesFair value changesIncome of 5.8 billion yuan, adjustedNet profitFor 2.05 billion yuan (yoy + 6%), the net profit margin is 6%.
Revenue by company:In 20Q3, the company achieved catering takeaway sales of 20.69 billion yuan (year on year + 33%, quarter on quarter + 42%); store, hotel and tourism revenues of 6.48 billion yuan (+ 5% yoy, quarter on quarter + 43%); new activities eOther income 8.23 billion yuan (YoY + 43%, QoQ + 46%). Operating profit by activity: In 20Q3 the company made a profit of 770 million yuan in its food and beverage delivery operations (+ 133% yoy, -38% yoy) and an operating profit margin of 4% (+ 2% on an annual basis); profit from shop, hotel and travel operations was 27.9 100 million yuan (YoY + 20%, QoQ + 48%), operating profit margin 43% (YoY + 5%); new business and other operating earnings -2.03 billion yuan (YoY + 49%, QoQ + 39%), operating profit rate -25%.
Income by type: Realization of company 20Q3commissionRevenues 23.13 billion yuan (yoy + 25%, quarter on quarter + 45%); revenues from online marketing services 5.66 billion yuan (yoy + 28%, quarter on quarter + 31%); other services and sales revenues 6.61 billion yuan (+ 47% yoy, + 47% quarter on quarter).
Cost situation:Company R&D expense ratio in 20Q3 8% (YoY + 0pct, QoQ -1pct), ratio of sales and marketing expenses 16% (YoY -4pct, QoQ -1pct), ratio of general and administrative expenses 4% ( YoY + 0pct, QoQ -1pct).
Situation of gross profit and profit margin: The company’s gross profit in 20Q3 is 10.82 billion yuan (+ 13% yoy, + 26% yoy),interest rate30.6% (QoQ -4.1%, YoY -4.3%), profit and loss of 6.72 billion yuan, operating profit margin of 19%, including investments in listed entitiesIncome from changes in fair value 5.8 billion yuan, adjusted net profit is 2.05 billion yuan (yoy + 6%), netinterest rateIt is 6% (on an annual basis -1%).
2. Food delivery:platformsupplyDiversity has increased, driving the expansion of the scenarios, and the three elements (users, merchants and distribution network) have been optimized and improved and AOV has performed well. Expanding the merchant scale improves operational efficiency,PromotionInnovative techniques to improve user stickiness and algorithmsGuaranteePilot safety and delivery efficiency. In 20Q3, the transaction value of the food delivery business was 152.2 billion yuan (yoy + 36%, quarterly + 40%), the number of users of the transaction was 4.765 million (YoY + 9%, QoQ + 4%) and the number of active merchants was 6.5 million (YoY + 10%), QoQ + 3%), 321.2 billion transactions ( YoY + 30%, QoQ + 44%), the average orderunit price 47.4 yuan (YoY + 5%, QoQ -3%), liquidity rate of 13.6% (YoY -0.3%, QoQ + 0.2%), revenues of 20.69 billion yuan (YoY + 33%, QoQ + 42%), operating profit of 7.7 100 million yuan (YoY + 133%, QoQ -38%), operating profit margin 4% (YoY + 2%).
3. Arrival at the store, liquor tour and more:In-store activity has fully recovered to achieve positive growth, growth in consumer upgrade categories has accelerated, hotel booking activity has substantially recovered and peak summer tourism destinations have turned to domesticcostAdvantage of location. In 20Q3, retail, hotel and tourism revenue was 6.48 billion yuan (YoY + 5%, QoQ + 43%), operating profit was 2.79 billion yuan (YoY + 20%) , QoQ + 48%) and the operating profit margin was 43% (YoY + 5pct)), 114 million hotel nights (YoY + 4%, QoQ + 46%).
4. New business and more:Active disposition sinkingmarket, Thorough fresh food retail and travel route (mainly shared motorcycles). The three models of fresh food retail platform + self-operated + community group buying go hand in hand, forming the strategic advantage of Food + Platform. New business and other revenues of 20Q3 were 8.23 billion yuan (+ 43% yoy, + 46% yoy), operating profit was 2.03 billion yuan (+ 49% on an annual basis, + 39% on a quarterly basis) and the operating profit margin was -25%.
5 、profit forecast：We continue to be optimistic about the company’s long-term development and subsequent performance growth. We expect the operating profit for 2020-2023 period will be 1124.4 / 1671.7 / 2180.8 / 290.92 billion yuan, net profit will be 48.3 / 221.3 / 346.9 / 64.67 billion yuan and earnings per share at 0.83 / 3.79 / 5.94 / 11.07 yuan.price 346 Hong Kong dollars, maintain the “recommended” rating.
risk warning:Macroeconomic growth declined, market competition intensified, industry growth was below expectations, political risks, GMV growth was below expectations after subsidies fell, new business development was lower than expected, excessive diversification of activities, insufficient coordination, insufficient operating funds and under-expected profitability, etc. .
(Source: Gelonghui)
(Responsible publisher: DF537)
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