- The Pfizer vaccine candidate was unveiled Monday as 90% effective, an interim evaluation welcomed by various global exchanges.
- A correlation between health and the economy that raises questions, in a world shaken by a health and socio-economic crisis.
- If this vaccine candidate, or another one, passes all the tests, will the economy recognize the good times of “world first”?
The announcement of a 90% effective vaccine candidate on Monday, according to an interim evaluation that needs to be thorough, was welcomed by
all world markets, but little inclined to ignite in this period. European markets rallied sharply during the day. The Paris stock exchange took 5.46%, Frankfurt 5.56%, London 5.05% and Milan 5.48%. Since its opening, Wall Street has experienced a similar euphoria. The Dow Jones was up 5.63% to a new high and the Nasdaq gained 1.25%.
Such an epidemic now brings double hope. In addition to solving the health crisis, the vaccine against
Could coronavirus (Pfizer or someone else) solve the crisis and save the economy?
First, we need to isolate market reactions from the rest of the economy. Monday fever is more “a classic reactionary exuberance of the stock markets, which are reacting stronger and more brutally than reality”, feared Frédéric Bizard, a health economist. Also, by this Tuesday morning, they had returned to a more traditional level.
Finding the economic level first, vaccine validation alone will not be enough. “It will face many post-development hurdles, whether at the production, storage or distribution level,” notes Frédéric Bizard, according to whom Pfizer’s announced production forecasts – 1.3 billion doses a during the year 2021 – are ” imaginative and move away from the field of health to become communication. “
Population vaccinated, economy recovered
In other words, in the short term, even with vaccine validation, “the economy is not expected to improve. Not for long, ”for the economist. Infectious disease specialist Nathan Peiffer-Smadja wants to be more optimistic: “If the vaccine is validated, we can hope to aim for a vaccination campaign this summer in France, thanks to an emergency authorization and rapid distribution.” As for doses, “many more vaccines are in the works, and if successful, there is no reason why others shouldn’t work as well, which will naturally increase doses with different vaccines available in the short term.”
However, with a vaccinated population, everything will become simpler: “If we stay at this 90% efficiency, we will be able to manage the disease much more easily and achieve what we are currently failing: tracking down the contamination chains and identifying A cases. From there, all the current levers of economic restraint could be lifted: catering, travel, rallies, festivals and the economy will restart completely.
The economy, the contract of trust
And if you find these projections still too hypothetical, one thing is certain for Frédéric Bizard, “the arsenal against Covid-19 is gradually strengthening. “A signal necessarily well interpreted by the economy, which considerably strengthens confidence in the future. “All the scientific advances we are seeing strengthen the odds of success in the medium term. It’s a more promising hope for the economy than if all the tests turned to a flop, and we added sadness to sadness. Hence the importance of publishing this type of interim results.
To the point of risking distorting certain studies to adapt them to the economy? Nathan Peiffer-Smadja immediately breaks this idea: “Studies are validated correctly, with large security files, and quick results do not necessarily mean they were performed poorly. It is important to put an end to the growing distrust of these results. “
Because here lies the main stake and the key to having to save the economy with a vaccine: the accession of the population. According to an Ipsos poll on Tuesday, only 54% of French people would agree to be vaccinated. And for both experts it is clear that with such a small percentage the coronavirus epidemic waves would continue and the economy could not recover normally. For Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, “at the same time as the vaccine rush must begin the race for the confidence of the population. “Because we say it one last time: difficult to advance the economy without confidence.