The threat of terrorism in Switzerland continues to increase, as the Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) shows in its “Swiss Security 2020” report published on Tuesday. The driving force behind this is still the Islamic State. In the eyes of jihadists, Switzerland is a legitimate target, but it is not in the foreground.
According to the results of the NDB, the potential for violence of local left and right extremism has not diminished. The most intense violence by left-wing extremists remains confined to objects, such as arson. Left-wing extremists increasingly participate in acts of violence during demonstrations. Furthermore, his scene tries to subvert and exploit movements like “Black Lives Matter”.
According to the NDB, right-wing extremists are currently relatively cautious. But they practice martial arts and stockpile weapons. With them, the risk of an attack comes from those who act alone and do not belong to any right-wing extremist group.
Internationally, various actors are battling for the flu. The strategic context in Switzerland is shaped by the power struggle between the United States and China. Russia wants to consolidate its influence in Europe. And there are various crises and conflicts on the European borders.
According to the NDB, the United States will remain the largest power in the world beyond 2020. Transatlantic relations and the US presence in the Middle East are likely to continue to lose importance. The resulting gaps will likely be filled by geopolitical competitors and will want to use them for their own interests.
China sees itself on a par with the US. This increases competition between the Western liberal system and authoritarian state capitalism. Internationally, the situation is increasingly influenced by the strategic competition between the United States and China. According to the FIS, this continues until the creation of exclusive zones of influence.
Russia wants to keep up with the United States and establish its own zones of influence. Ukraine, like Belarus, remains the Kremlin’s hub after the presidential elections. As for Belarus, President Vladimir Putin clearly warns the West against any influence.
The FIS cannot provide a detailed answer to the question about the effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. However, the virus is expected to reinforce and accelerate existing trends. This includes the end of the world order shaped by the United States and its alliances.
It is questionable whether stable order will be restored in the near future. The FIS believes a new bipolar order between the United States and China is possible. The development of a system with more power poles is even more uncertain.
International tensions go hand in hand with espionage. Espionage damages Switzerland’s image as a host country for international diplomacy. Furthermore, Swiss interests are directly threatened by espionage in the financial center, innovative companies or institutions. In addition, there is surveillance and threats to members of the opposition by foreign powers.
Espionage and international power struggles in general take place in cyberspace. Up to now, Switzerland has been spared from sabotage.