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How the Brexit drama could continue



And now? The Mays Brexit agreement has failed in the British Parliament, now must find a way out. How could that look? The most important questions and answers on plan B.

On Monday, British Prime Minister Theresa May will have to present a declaration to the London Parliament on a "Plan B" for the rejected Brexit agreement. However, it is unlikely that the government will make a concrete proposal on how the agreement could get a majority in parliament. In the best of cases, a roadmap can be expected to search for consensus. At the end of this process, it may be necessary to renegotiate Brussels. Only then could the vote be re-voted.

What does Prime Minister May intend to do?

Officially, May wants to seek consensus with the opposition and the rebels in their own party during the talks. But there are doubts about whether she really wants it. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn of the Labor Party does not even want to participate, as long as May does not take a Brexit without a deal from the table.

So far, it does not seem that May will deviate from their red lines. Only the Tory party's Brexit extremists were satisfied with the talks: they want nothing more than a chaotic exit from the EU. On the other hand, the majority of MEPs want to prevent the "No Deal".

The observers therefore believe that May is still on time and hopes that a sufficient number of parliamentarians will approve their agreement, after the country has approached quite the chasm and none of the alternatives presented has turned out to be a majority.

The British Prime Minister leaves the Parliament: so far the situation is proceeding, neither May nor the leader of the opposition Corbyn withdraw from their positions. (Source: AP / dpa / Stefan Rousseau / PA via AP)The British Prime Minister leaves the Parliament: so far the situation is proceeding, neither May nor the leader of the opposition Corbyn withdraw from their positions. (Source: Stefan Rousseau / PA via AP / AP / dpa)

What happens next?

On 29 January the calendar will be discussed and voted in the lower house. MEPs have the opportunity to change the draft resolution. The result may be that political scientist Jack Simson Caird of the Bingham Center think tank is voting in February for a series of options that will be voted by the parliament to identify what changes or alternatives to the Brexit agreement are eligible for the majority.

What are the options that remain in the United Kingdom?

Much of the opposition would like closer ties with the EU than previously planned. The accession to the European Customs Union, and possibly the single market, should therefore be on the table.

Requests for renegotiations with Brussels on the guarantee of support for an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland are also likely. The Brexit extremists in the May Conservative Party, as well as the Northern Irish DUP on which their minority government depends, demand that the backstop be removed from the agreement, or at least that a unilateral resolution agreement be reached for London.

Even the idea of ​​presenting the decision on the Brexit agreement to the people has its supporters in the lower house. For a second referendum, however, a postponement of the withdrawal date on 29 March would be necessary.

Could the Parliament exclude a Brexit without an agreement?

Parliament can only prevent a "non-agreement" scenario by agreeing on an alternative. The starting date of 29 March is foreseen by the EU exit law, so a change of law would also be necessary to avoid unintentionally leaving the EU.

So far, there does not seem to be a majority for any alternative plan. Therefore, there is strong evidence that Britain needs to postpone its output to gain time. But for the cooperation of the government it would be necessary.

If it turns out that May is actually playing for time, there is also the possibility that Parliament will take control of the process. Plans are already available.

What do you expect now the EU and what could it offer?

The EU is very reluctant to declare publicly that it is up to the United Kingdom to find a solution. Behind the scenes, however, everyone in Brussels is mulling over a dead-end street.

According to official figures, the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker called almost every European capital this week and, on Friday, to Prime Minister May. When the two made progress, at least nothing came out.

The common diplomatic language is now: as soon as there is a consensus proposal in the United Kingdom, the EU will treat it. It is not excluded an extension of two-year resignation beyond March 29, as well as new negotiations on future relations with the United Kingdom, for example, if London wants a customs union.


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