Polls of polls that allowed to discuss what could be the outcome of the European elections and what coalition could be started.
The evolution of the power of European parties beyond the usual variations will be influenced by the withdrawal of Britain and by a more general growth of populist and anti-European parties.
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Brexitti contributes in the most visible way to the collapse of the European social democrats losing the votes of the Labor party. The S & D group loses almost 6% of total mandates, down from 25% to 19%. The EPP is not concerned by the fact that British conservatives were already part of the Eurosceptic ECR group (European Conservatives and Reformers). The ECR loses the British mandates but compensates for its mandates to be obtained in Poland from the PiS (government party).
The collapse of the traditional political system in France leads to a loss of both rights (PPE, -3.6%) and left (S & D, -6%). Alde gains ALDE (+ 4.4%) attracting Macron and ENL (+ 4%) the group founded by the French National Assembly, led by Marine le Pen.
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When we talk about coalitions, we must understand that the European Parliament is trying to work on the consensus principle rather than on building majorities. Therefore, traditionally, the European Parliament is dominated by a great coalition between socialists and peoples who, in one way or another, alternates by giving the President of Parliament.
In addition, the current Commission (Juncker Commission) has, in addition to 14 EPP members and 8 S & D members, and 5 ALDE members.
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President of the European Commission
For the position of President of Parliament, the EPPs obviously have the best chance, which has the highest number of mandates. The Social Democrats can raise claims on the basis of existing customs, but can no longer speak on an equal footing with the EPP, but their parliamentary power is somewhere between the EPP and the ALDE.
Most likely the President of the Commission will be a representative of the EPP, although it is expected that ALDE will discuss at least an alliance with the socialists to appoint someone outside the people. The President of the Commission is appointed by the European Council, composed of Heads of State and Government, but must be validated by the Parliament.
As far as the members of the Commission are concerned, they are nominated by national governments, thus reflecting the national legislative choices and the governments that derive from them. Therefore, Italy and Poland could appoint a commissioner less favorable to European integration. It will be the Commission's main task to shift between their pressures and the wishes of a Parliament that remains optimistic about the euro.
But let's look at the majority. The great traditional coalition between the people and the socialists falls below 50% of the mandates and the sum of the parts that give the current commission also drops from a comfortable 63% to 58%. But the Greens can also be included in a large pro-European coalition, which would bring the score to 65%. This does not mean that there are candidates for new parties that will probably also join existing groups. The Euro-skeptical parties, on the other hand, reach only 30% and the ideological differences between them are quite high.
If we were to take seriously the separation on the left to the right, we see how the European left, even in alliance with the center (described as ALDE), will reach only 47%. The right would reach 48% on its own and with the center at 62%. But all these combinations are extremely difficult to achieve in practice, because it would mean reuniting pro-integration pro-European parties, relatively centrists with radical anti-European parties (or at least extremely critical of the EU).