Covid-19: these big cities where the epidemic “slows down”


Questioned into the microphone of the “Political Issues” program, Olivier Véran recalled Sunday evening that it was “too early” to judge the effects of the reconfirmation. But he still mentioned “a form to slow the progression of the epidemic […], trembling ”, in short, a very slight brake on the circulation of the virus that could be confirmed by the Prime Minister during his speech on Thursday.

This phenomenon “is not in doubt” in some large metropolises, starting with Paris, according to David Heard, director of communications at the Ile-de-France regional health agency. Martin Hirsch, director of AP-HP, made the same observation Monday morning.

The epidemic is slowing down in most metropolises, in some it is even diminishing

In addition to Paris, several large cities are concerned about this very recent “thrill” in incidence, or the number of people who tested positive in a segment of the population over the course of a week. Deeply impressed, Lille appear to have peaked at the end of October, just like Toulouse and Montpellier.

Covid-19: these big cities where the epidemic is

The situation seems more nuanced in the south-east, where, despite a drastic decline, the number of people who tested positive remains very high in Saint-Etienne. In Lyon, too, a plateau seems to have been reached and it is too early to speak of a recession. Likewise in Nice, where, despite a lower level of contamination, the signs of a slowdown are not so evident.

At this stage, it should be noted that the fast pace of testing often leads to delays in communicating results and that it is only over time that we can attest to a turnaround.

Rural areas more contaminated than in spring

France is in fact one of the most tested countries in the world, and this obviously is not without consequences on the number of positive tests, which has grown inexorably since the beginning of October.

And while some cities are reaching a plateau, it is clear that unlike the first wave, the second affects almost all territories and has spread to rural areas.

Covid-19: these big cities where the epidemic is

In hospitals, the worst is yet to come

It remains to be seen whether the glimmers of hope that point here and there in the territory are to be attributed to the curfew and imprisonment. “Very intelligent he who will explain a cause and effect link between incidence and behavior” observes David Heard, before highlighting the important inertia of the screening policy: “Sometimes it takes more than a week to incubate the virus , a few days to take the test and a few days to get the result. A measure does not take effect until at least fifteen days after its application, “notes David Heard.

And in fact the hospital situation is critical. The number of hospitalizations for Covid-19 is expected to peak very soon on April 14, 2020. Likewise, the number of resuscitations continues to increase and, with them, the number of deaths.

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