The forecasts on the prices of Bitcoin 2018 did not come true. The currency is tied to the range and waits for something to happen, but what could it be?
The technical perspectives for Bitcoin are very limited. Without an important catalyst to drive it, the currency is languishing near the long-term lows in which it has been trading for many months. The world's leading cryptocurrency is trapped in a narrow range and does not look like it will break out soon. Indicators such as stochastic and MACD compete; this token is bound to the range and trending laterally for the short term at least.
Description – Bitcoin price chart with Bitcoin 2018 forecasts
The main support is higher than $ 6,000 and the token range appears to be reduced to a point close to $ 6,400. This point is noteworthy as it is the equilibrium point at which the miners – many of them, however – are able to make a profit. If the price of Bitcoin falls significantly below this level, it could force miners to exit the market and define the end for the world's cryptocurrency reserve … This is not a possibility in our Bitcoin projections.
Our Bitcoin prediction is this: the price of Bitcoin will most likely evolve sideways within the current trading range until the next major catalyst emerges. The token is likely to approach a market equilibrium point that appears to be close to $ 6,400. When the catalysts emerge and there are several at the horizon, Bitcoin will exit the range and start moving higher. How high it will depend on the catalyst.
Bitcoin miners are supporting the market
Global data on hash rates say that Bitcoin miners are still interested in the cryptocurrency number one by market capitalization and are supporting the market. The global hash rate, the amount of computing power spent on the extraction of BTC, has been exceeded this year when BTC prices have reached the lowest levels, but have since reached record levels. Miners are important for a fundamental fact: they are the source of all Bitcoins. Since it costs miners about $ 6,500 per coin to run their plants, you can bet that the price of Bitcoin will not fall much below that level.
Description – Graph of growth in the Bitcoin hash rate since 2017
A decreased supply will help to increase prices
What most Bitcoin price forecasts do not mention is the ever-decreasing supply of Bitcoin. By decreasing, I do not mean the ever increasing level of difficulty that makes it increasingly difficult to find new Bitcoins. By reducing, I mean the growing number of Bitcoins that are lost or irretrievably blocked.
The recent estimates of November 2017 had the number of Bitcoins lost to 4 mln. That number has increased significantly over the last 12 months and is now approaching the 7 million Bitcoins lost. The reasons for the loss are various, but all point to one thing: less and less Bitcoins are available every day, and eventually all will have disappeared. To put this problem into perspective, think about this: there are only 21 million BTC to be extracted, about 18 mln are already extracted and 7 mln of those are lost.
Do people lose Bitcoin on purpose?
One of the main reasons Bitcoin is getting lost is Proof-of-Burn. Proof-of-Burn is the concept that the value stored in a token can be transferred to a new digital token. By burning coins in a public way, sending them to an unrecoverable address, tokens are lost on purpose and are in fact a guarantee account that guarantees the value of the cryptocurrency just created.
Regardless of the reason, the bottom line for investors is this. Bitcoin is a commodity; raw materials are valued according to demand and supply. We know for sure that the supply is shrinking, as long as the price of Bitcoin to shoot higher is an increase in demand.
Bitcoin is the dominant cryptocurrency
Despite the bear market this year in cryptocurrency, Bitcoin remains the leading digital currency by market capitalization. The total market capitalization for Bitcoin has been close to $ 110 billion in recent months and represents over 50% of the total cryptocurrency market. This figure shows that Bitcoin is still the most requested digital token that controls the largest flow of new capital.
Over the past year, the Bitcoin domain has been continuously evolving as a bearish activity and the launch of new tokens induces market volatility. Bitcoin's domain fell to a low near 33% in January 2018 and has since recovered. Over the past two months, the number of tokens has increased steadily to current levels, while market participants are pouring into the most stable and reliable digital currency on the market.
Description – Graph of the Bitcoin price domain with annotations
This figure is in stark contrast to digital currencies n. 2 and n. 3 by market capitalization, Ethereum and Ripple. Combined, Ethereum and Ripple command less than 20% of the total market, making them less attractive for new money seeking to invest in cryptocurrency. When the market returns, and it will, Bitcoin will be the first choice as it has the greatest respect and trust among digital currency traders.
The bitcoin domain in November 2018 is 53%.
The Ethereum domain in November 2018 is 10%.
Ripple dominance November 2018 is 9%.
How does this affect Bitcoin 2018 price prediction? If you look at the Bitcoin 2017 price forecast, there is a compelling comparison to make. In 2017, just before Bitcoin started its wild march at $ 20,000, the chip domain fell to below 40%, to then rise to over 60%. Many analysts believe, and I am one of them, the fall in this year at 33% and the rebound at 50% are signaling a rebound in the price of Bitcoin which only requires a catalyst to start.
The regulation is the catalyst that the operators are waiting for
Catalyst operators are awaiting regulation. Regulations and regulatory issues have been suspended for years on the entire cryptocurrency market and are the cause of the 2018 bear market. The war began last autumn when Chinese financial regulators moved to ban cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency trading and ICOs in China. The bear market was launched about a month later, when South Korea, an outbreak of Blockchain technology, took similar steps. Since then, South Korea has eased their position, embracing Blockchain and digital financial titles, but the issue of regulation is far from being resolved.
Description: Bitcoin's potential to change the world, from CCN.com
The number one problem that keeps operators back today is the SEC, the CFTC and US regulation. The SEC and the CFTC have allowed the listing of BTC futures, but this is what they have for the legal listing of Blockchain-based trading solutions in the United States. The SEC has created a cript cryptocurrency whose job is to coordinate the correct regulation of the market, but still, there is not a picture, not even a hint of what might happen.
Operators all over the world are waiting for the listing of a Bitcoin or cryptocurrency ETF in the United States. Many forecasts on Bitcoin see a similar announcement already at the beginning of this year, although the chances of it decreasing from day to day. The SEC has already reviewed and rejected a dozen requests from fund managers to list such an ETF, and there is still no indication of when, or even if, a Bitcoin ETF will be allowed.
A Bitcoin ETF is coming, operators need to be ready
A group of Blockchain industry leaders including fund managers, cryptocurrency developers and hedge / private equity investors have appealed to the US Congress for clarity on cryptocurrency regulation. Their position is that the lack of regulation is much more detrimental to American investors than any technology-related risk. The appeal led Congress to seek clarification from the SEC, but has not yet said anything.
The biggest obstacle to US cryptocurrency regulation is the lack of regulated infrastructure; there is not, or not much, anyway. The good news is that Bakkt could end all this. Bakkt is a joint venture between ICE (The Intercontinental Exchange) and partners.
"Bakkt is designed to enable consumers and institutions to buy, sell, store and spend digital resources without interruption, and to build trust, efficiency and trade in digital resources, Bakkt seeks to develop open technology to connect the existing market and the commercial infrastructure at the Blockchain ".
The exchange is designed to support the purchase, storage and trading of digital currencies through ecosystems and includes a digital clearinghouse for transactions. It is expected that the exchange will launch its first products, the new BTC / USD futures, at the beginning of December 2018 and considered the springboard for a Bitcoin ETF.
The takeaway for traders is this: bitcoin regulation is keeping the market, and the news, for better or for worse, is what will drive the cryptocurrency markets in the next twelve months. If the SEC puts kibosh on BTC and cryptocurrency investments, ETFs and other retail products, you can be sure that the cryptocurrency market will react negatively. If, on the other hand, a BTC ETF has been approved (as expected), one can be sure that the Bitcoin forecast and Bitcoin pricing forecasts will become predominantly bullish.
Description – Bitcoin prices are expected to move higher in 2018 and 2019
My prediction about Bitcoins? It is only a matter of time before the United States adopts the cryptocurrency regulation and allows it to list a BTC ETF. If this happens, my Bitcoin price forecast is this: Bitcoin will repeat its all-time high near $ 20,000 and will most likely move to new historical highs. The Bitcoin 2018 predictions are a dozen dozens, everyone has an opinion on when and how high the BTC will be. The only thing you need to know is that BTC will move higher, if not now, then very, very soon.