One of the great technical themes in this year's crypt was the power of transition from silent consolidations to key trends. The obvious example was the quiet Bitcoin (BTC) range near $ 6,500 for the period from July to November. Once Bitcoin (BTC) left that bearish range, it lost 40% of its value.
We see the same thing that is going to happen in the Bitcoin domain (BTC). Figure 1 shows that the dominant position is making headway over an important 53 percent Fibon number. The dominance of Bitcoin (BTC) could go up to 60 percent if the upward trend continues.
We see many technical tests that shed light on how a 60% change to the domain could occur. Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) could have a dramatic decline in percentage terms. If there is another big leg down in the crypt, these three coins could lose up to 50 percent of their value.
Let's start with Litecoin (LTC).
This year we have been successful with the price targets using the 200-day moving average. The history of the Crypto bear market saw coins drop 75% below their 200-day moving average before they hit the bottom. This worked very well with EOS, and it's worth noting that we asked for a reduction to $ 1.60.
This time, we are applying the theme to Litecoin (LTC). This implies that Litecoin (LTC) could fall from $ 24 to $ 15 (Figure 2). That would be a 62 percent decrease.
Looking at Ethereum (ETH) on Bitmex, there is a support cluster around the $ 89 level. If the ETH begins to crumble, the target of the bearish price could be as deep as $ 48 ( Figure 3). Any kind of decline like this could be created by the fork on January 18 or the sale of panic tax losses. As with Litecoin (LTC), there is a technical case for another 50 percent decrease.
And then, of course, there is Ripple (XRP). Fibonacci's work indicates that a 50% reduction in value is possible. (Figure 4). Basically, this fall is easily justified by the fact that Ripple (XRP) is probably a security, not a currency. Ripple (XRP) is just a regulatory comment away from serious problems.
If Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) fall dramatically, this could take almost all coins below Bitcoin (BTC) on the market graph. This could send the Bitcoin domain (BTC) much higher.
Bottom Line: It's frightening to think about how much the crypto complex can fall compared to Bitcoin. There may not be any way for the institutions to actually cover a 50% drop in Litecoin (LTC) and Ethereum (ETH). They may try to shorten the Bitcoin (BTC) or Bitcoin futures, but this may not work if the percentage drop in LTC and ETH is much larger than the percentage drop in Bitcoin (BTC). So, the low Litecoin (LTC) and Ethereum (ETH) potentially go, the more incentive there will be to sell them for tax loss purposes.
This period of the year is really bizarre because lower prices could lead to more and more sellers. The greater the tax loss, the more you can use to offset future earnings.