Because Crypto Winter will not be the 2019 definition

Eric Piscini is the CEO of Citizens Reserve and Deloitte's former blockchain lead.

The following is an exclusive contribution for the 2018 year of CoinDesk under consideration.

In 2018, I thought of two anniversaries.

The first one is familiar to us. By the end of this year, a decade will have passed since Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin and launched a new industry.

The second anniversary is personal. After launching Deloitte's blockchain practice with two friends in 2012, I moderated a panel at Money / 2020 in 2013. This space was so new, we still did not have a name for blockchain; rather, the panel I drove was called "Bitcoin 2.0". Still, we knew that it would be derived more from technology.

There, Charlie Lee, David Johnson and Taariq Lewis spoke about autonomous organizations, digitized digital products and decentralized business models. It could be said that most of the room was completely lost.

As we close 2018, one of the key lessons is that the most important cryptocurrency stories are not always those with the noisiest titles. While the "winter crypt" was at the center of many discussions, it was not for me the key story of the year. What do I think was more important?

First, the increase of "other" tokens – security tokens, non-fungible tokens, stablecoins and stock tokens, which have demonstrated the continued vitality of the blockchain community. That a single year – and a hard year for this – has seen so many different and innovative products demonstrate the lasting value of the blockchain.

Secondly, significant investments in cryptography and blockchain infrastructures from traditional financial institutions and new technology companies allow us to build much stronger foundations on: portfolios, trading technologies, custody solutions, exchanges, broker solutions and more.

Finally, our regulatory environment. While, for some cryptic enthusiasm, the regulation sounds like a death knell for blockchain, I think this point of view is misleading on two fronts.

First of all, the regulation removes and discourages the bad actors who have damaged the reputation of Blockchain. Secondly, regulation shows that blockchain is here to stay. It is not necessary to regulate a passing fashion; it will expire long before a bill reaches the commission.

A new lasting resource, however, needs a place in a legal framework. Lawmakers have decided that the blockchain is growing, not evaporating.

What do I expect to see in 2019? Given the speed and volatility of cryptocurrency, you'll have to give me some margin of error, but here's what I see in the next 12 months:

1. Invest in the bottom: If we have not yet reached the winter solstice of the crypt, we are very close; the brightest and warmest days will arrive soon. The first days of 2019 are the time to make bets on the best chips and on the best teams. I call it the new Rockefeller moment.
2. A new Howey test: The SEC scrutiny of the blockchain meant that the blockchain supporters had to learn about SEC v. W. J. Howey Co., the 1946 Supreme Court case that defined the titles in US law. I expect the courts to promulgate a new test for the blockchain, which will allow investors to place their money more securely.
3. Better basic technology: It may have taken a bearish market to bring home this point, but blockchain is not about getting rich tomorrow. We need to pay more attention to improvements in performance and scalability and pay less attention to new projects. #BUIDL is the new #HODL.
4. Decentralized business models: This could be my most difficult prediction to imagine. In 2019 we will see an increase in decentralized activities in the banking, financial markets, payments, insurance, supply chain and other sectors. The next Google or Amazon could make an appearance, but they will be very different: they will not look for a place on the Nasdaq, because they will generate network value more than the value of equity.
5. A & killer consumer app: While blockchain conferences were the killer app of 2018, we are still looking for the product that will bring the blockchain value to non-tech and non-business consumer audiences. I tried some apps that were supposed to be killer apps, but the experience was so bad that I wonder if the developers thought killer apps had to kill their users. I survived, and I hope to have more and better next year.

To go back to that Money 2020 conference a long time ago: it is rare to speak with a single visionary, and much less three. Most of the ideas that Charlie, David and Tariq discussed that day were so far-sighted that they were, at the time, dismissed as impossible or ignored as incomprehensible.

Today many of their ideas have become implementations. Tomorrow others will follow.

I'm beginning to wonder if those pie-in-the-sky forecasts for 2020 were, in reality, too conservative. And remember, the difference between genius and stupidity is 18 months …

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Winter sun via Shutterstock