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Wednesday 2 December 2020
From Tal Leder, Tel Aviv
Iranian extremists want retaliation for the murder of nuclear researcher Fakhrizadeh. But revenge also carries risks: it could induce Israel to counterattack and jeopardize the renegotiations with the United States on the nuclear deal.
The assassination team struck in broad daylight: some killers jumped from a parked car, others rushed to their aid on motorcycles. Three bullets hit Iran’s leading nuclear researcher Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who fell bleeding from his car to the ground. Doctors from a Tehran hospital were no longer able to save the scientist, known as the “father of the Iranian nuclear program”.
A few weeks after the end of the mandate of US President Donald Trump, the situation in the Middle East is tense. With the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, the conflict between Iran and its opponents threatens to deepen. The mullahs blame Israel for his death. The 59-year-old was recently the head of the research and technological innovation department of the Iranian Ministry of Defense. Hardliners are now calling for retaliation, but Iran could pay a high price for it.
“Tehran is unlikely to react militarily in the short term, but that doesn’t mean the assassination will go unanswered,” said Shlomo Yariv, a former counter-terrorism adviser to the Israeli Defense Ministry. “The numerous acts of sabotage on the Iranian nuclear program have damaged the image of the regime”.
When military leader Ghassem Soleimani, revered by many compatriots, was eliminated by a US drone strike earlier this year, Iran attacked US bases in western Iraq with ballistic missiles. However, according to Yariv, the significance of that attack must be valued higher than the killing of the nuclear physicist. Even though he had ties to the ayatollahs. “Iran will investigate the murder background very closely,” says the security expert. “They know that the political dimension of this assassination attempt is something Israel is also aiming for: escalating tensions before the end of the Trump era to drag Iran and the US into a more serious conflict. This would pave the way for diplomacy. Make it difficult. the next American administration “.
Israel wages “war between wars”
Israel is prepared for Iranian threats. Security measures were also increased for Jewish and Israeli institutions abroad. While intelligence circles believe war is unlikely, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on the country’s northern border are prepared for any scenario. Israel is particularly active in the Golan Heights, where Iran is trying to establish itself militarily on the Syrian side to open another front against the Jewish state. To avoid this, Israel has been waging a “war between the two wars” for over a decade. The main goal of their mostly covert military actions is to weaken Iran and its representatives through targeted attacks. The deterrent balance should be maintained.
“Despite the Iranian threats, we continue to pursue our tasks and objectives,” says Northern Command Captain Ronen Eckstein. “We will continue to act decisively against Iran’s military expansion into Syria and we are prepared for any kind of aggression”. On the “blue line” that separates Israel and Lebanon, the IDF has been on high alert since last summer. After an Israeli airstrike in Syria killed a member of Hezbollah, they are also preparing for a possible attack by the Iranian-backed militia.
“Tehran knows that any aggression against us leads to a counterattack”, explains the officer. “A response in the form of a border fence incident or even a rocket launch at IDF positions could endanger their terrorist infrastructure.” However, according to IDF sources, Hezbollah is currently not seeking war and recently claimed that retaliation was in Tehran’s hands.
Lebanon is about to collapse
Although Hezbollah, like Iran’s extended arm, can hit any place in Israel with its 150,000 rockets, they know of the plight in Lebanon. This is on the verge of collapse due to economic and political chaos, Covid-19, and damage from the massive explosion in the port of Beirut.
Despite the rattle of sabers in the Persian Gulf and demands for retaliation, it is not yet foreseeable to what extent the killing of the nuclear physicist will affect Iran’s nuclear program. Attacks on numerous scientists and cyber attacks on the Natanz nuclear power plant only set back the mullahs’ nuclear ambitions for a short time. Fakhrizadeh’s murder could hit Iran harder. According to the Israeli secret service Mossad, the physicist was in charge of the “Amad” project, an alleged secret research project in Iran, aimed at developing a working nuclear warhead.
“The attack confronts Tehran with demands for hard-line retaliation or the possibility of trying a fresh start with US President-elect Joseph Biden,” reporter Ron Ben-Yishai told Israeli television recently. Biden announced that he would resume the 2015 nuclear deal, from which outgoing President Trump resigned in 2018. “An Iranian attack with deaths in Israel would force Biden to support his predecessor’s crippling sanctions against Tehran,” he analyzed. military expert.
A cyber attack is also conceivable
According to the war correspondent, a reaction from Iran could take place through its terrorist infrastructure that has been built around the world. From this point of view, the State of God could attack Israeli and Jewish institutions, such as the attack on the construction of the Jewish community and the Israeli embassy in Argentina in the 1990s. According to Ben-Yishai, a cyber attack on Israeli water infrastructure is also conceivable. “If an Iranian aggression were to take place in the Middle East, it would be carried out by a representative of Iran from one of the states it controls. A ballistic missile by the Yemeni Houthi rebels on an Israeli ship in the Red Sea or on the city of Eilat would be conceivable.” .
Iran will make calculated decisions, especially in the coming weeks, as change is pending in the White House. “In Iran, hardliners are benefiting politically from the murder,” says Shlomo Yariv. “Any conflict with Israel strengthens their arguments against negotiations with its allies in the West, because they can postpone them until after the Iranian elections this summer.” However, according to the security expert’s estimates, “a retaliatory attack on Tehran, especially if it claims casualties, can lead Trump to attack Iranian nuclear sites and destroy their broader strategic plans.”
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